It seems to make its point pretty clearly to me: "just naysay" is a strategy that is extremely effective/accurate in many domains, but provides no actual value compared to people attempting more honest evaluations or predictions.
I just realized it's possible I'm being whooshed by your comment.
Well he also claims that the rock has higher Brier scores than all the futurists, which would imply that in this example the futurists aren't actually adding any value with their attempts at honest evaluations and predictions.
I just realized it's possible I'm being whooshed by your comment.