The schedule of rate increases had already been announced. Given that a less aggressive schedule was unlikely given inflation, there was a possibility of a more aggressive schedule. I think the market is reacting to that.
The 50bp bump was telegraphed and the forward guidance seems to be consistent with what the Fed has been saying for a while, so I’d be skeptical (as, frankly, I usually am) of the usual simple causal narrative between the concrete event and the same day market movement.
When the fed starts raising, they always end up raising 6+ times. When on #2 they are raising it this much... hold onto your socks.
>and current market pricing has the rate rising to 3%-3.25% by year’s end
Are you holding on tight?
>“In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks,” the statement said.
To debate supply vs demand side is pointless because the fed doesn't even know.
3% is still super low historically. Let's wait and see how the economy actually reacts to the rising rates. Back in 2019, the Fed got cold feet and started lowering rates after hitting ~2.5%. The amount of money in the system is also unprecedented. Judging by the reverse repo rate, people are sitting on $2T with nothing to do with it. Maybe higher interest rates will bring that down, but inflation looks like it will remain high for some time.
