yeah it's probably 'she' not 'he' for this particular person but whatever.
No the point being made is more like that you can compute something doesn't mean you're right even if your math is correct. That goes for a lot of physics and also for a lot of statistics. Second the conclusion drawn by Bostrom et al is hilarious in a very bad way, and also completely beyond science and mathematics. Third, the argumentation is also ridiculous b/c in history as in weather and a lot of other fields we're dealing with a highly dynamic, basically chaotic system. Fourth, we can't predict what the future will be like in a year or in ten years, but here there's a bunch of rich technocrats who want me to swallow that it's OK to sacrifice hundreds and hundreds of millions of people for the greater good of mankind in a billion years? Bro do you even count? You don't even know how a big a number a billion is, and I can't tell you either. Lastly, these people are throwing around their assumption-laden probabilistic formulas like there's no tomorrow [pun intended]. Fact is we can't be sure of any of the assumptions or their probabilities, nor what they mean. People already get stuck with everyday tasks of risk assessment.
> seems very demeaning towards the math
Get over it. It's OK to ridicule the math of someone who makes an absurd argument and abuses the math for dangerous, delusional and nefarious purposes, as the longtermers do. This is fascism in every way but name.
No the point being made is more like that you can compute something doesn't mean you're right even if your math is correct. That goes for a lot of physics and also for a lot of statistics. Second the conclusion drawn by Bostrom et al is hilarious in a very bad way, and also completely beyond science and mathematics. Third, the argumentation is also ridiculous b/c in history as in weather and a lot of other fields we're dealing with a highly dynamic, basically chaotic system. Fourth, we can't predict what the future will be like in a year or in ten years, but here there's a bunch of rich technocrats who want me to swallow that it's OK to sacrifice hundreds and hundreds of millions of people for the greater good of mankind in a billion years? Bro do you even count? You don't even know how a big a number a billion is, and I can't tell you either. Lastly, these people are throwing around their assumption-laden probabilistic formulas like there's no tomorrow [pun intended]. Fact is we can't be sure of any of the assumptions or their probabilities, nor what they mean. People already get stuck with everyday tasks of risk assessment.
> seems very demeaning towards the math
Get over it. It's OK to ridicule the math of someone who makes an absurd argument and abuses the math for dangerous, delusional and nefarious purposes, as the longtermers do. This is fascism in every way but name.