It means that they are willing to claim to the public that there is a business case for their technology providing billions in value in that year. They do not have the bookings.
That's just execs tossing out big numbers about a market they don't understand. They do that all the time. Like babies, they cannot help but fill diapers. That doesn't mean we need to discuss it at the water cooler.
Do they have hardware? Is it available? How many nines? Do they have a useful software stack? Does it give developers meaningful leverage to solve problems? The most incredible thing about quantum hype is that ordinarily detail-focused engineer types are getting snowed and buying it because the punchline is too good to be true. But sometimes, these companies make testable claims: if we'd only talk about the externally verifiable ones, and leave the vapor out of it, I think it would make for a much more interesting conversation.
But more specifically they have customers with use cases studied in detail, where a modest quantum advantage becomes highly profitable, so all they need to do now is ship and the bookings will come in.
Sorry, but that's exactly the kool-aid swilling nonsense I'm talking about. Did you notice that your "all they need" is literally a quantum-computer shaped hole in the plan? You're curiously bullish on exactly one brand of vaporware. Why?
Quantum has a level of bullshit where an enterprise could tell a customer their systems will solve P=NP. Clearly we don’t have information theory that supports that: we can only solve BQP better with them.
The industry has customers with use cases proven for BQP with restricted quantum computers ready to go. The linked article leans to saying that’s not going to be true, but the companies out there building contradict this and say their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most.
It could be another Tesla with self driving perpetually 2-4 years out. But look at waymo, clearly tech changes happen
With what people are accomplishing today certainly seems closer to reality. But nobody has really shown us just yet
As for “one brand of vaporwave” I’m cynical on quantinuum. If their tech was strong they would have raised without Honeywell.
>their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most
Right. I'm sure these customers would be willing to spend billions of dollars on a working quantum computer that solves a business problem for them in the next 2-3 years. What GP is pointing out, however, is that statement presupposes that said quantum computer will actually exist.
I would bet money that no such machine will be available for purchase in 2-3 years. What will exist in 2-3 years are more press releases about new QCs with even larger numbers of noisy physical qubits that still don't amount to a single fully error corrected logical qubit that can factor 35 without resorting to tricks like precompilation. Along with more press releases proclaiming loudly that commercial QCs are a mere 2-3 years away.
