Probably the first significant hit are going to be drivers, delivery men, truckers etc. a demographic of 5 million jobs in US and double that in EU, with ripple effects costing other millions of jobs in industries such as roadside diners and hotels.
The general tone of this study seems to be "It's 1995, and this thing called the Internet has not made TV obsolete"; same for the Acemoglu piece linked elsewhere in the. Well, no, it doesn't work like that, it first comes for your Blockbuster, your local shops and newspaper and so on, and transforms those middle class jobs vulnerable to automation into minimum wages in some Amazon warehouse. Similarly, AI won't come for lawyers and programmers first, even if some fear it.
The overarching theme is that the benefits of automation flow to those who have the bleeding edge technological capital. Historically, labor has managed to close the gap, especially trough public education; it remains to be seen if this process can continue, since eventually we're bound to hit the "hardware" limits of our wetware, whereas automation continues to accelerate.
So at some point, if the economic paradigm is not changed, human capital loses and the owners of the technological capital transition into feudal lords.
I think that drivers are probably pretty late in cycle. Many environments they operate in are somewhat complicated. Even if you do a lot to make automation possible. Say with garbage move to containers that can simply be lifted either by crane or forks. Still places were those containers are might need lot of individual training to navigate to.
Similar thing goes to delivery. Moving single pallet to store or replacing carpets or whatever. Lot of complexity if you do not offload it to receiver.
More regular the environment is easier it is to automate. A shelving in store in my mind might be simpler than all environments where vehicles need to operate in.
And I think we know first to go. Average or below average "creative" professionals. Copywriter, artists and so on.
Yeah no, I'm seeing more and more shitty ai generated ads, shop logos, interior design & graphics for instance in barber shops, fast food places etc.
The sandwich shop next to my work has a music playlist which is 100% ai generated repetitive slop.
Do you think they'll be paying graphic designers, musicians etc. for now on when something certainly shittier than what a good artist does, but also much better than what a poor one is able to achieve, can be used in five minutes for free?
> Do you think they'll be paying graphic designers, musicians etc. for now on
People generating these things weren't ever going to be customers of those skillsets. Your examples are small business owners basically fucking around because they can, because it's free.
Most barber shops just play the radio, or "spring" for satellite radio, for example. AI generated music might actively lose them customers.
Given that the world is fast deglobalizing there will be a flood of factory work being reshored in the next 10 years.
There's also going to be a shrinkage in the workforce caused by demographics (not enough kids to replace existing workers).
At the same time education costs have been artificially skyrocketed.
Personally the only scenario I see mass unemployment happening is under a "Russia-in-the-90s" style collapse caused by an industrial rugpull (supply chains being cut off way before we are capable of domestically substituting them) and/or the continuation of policies designed to make wealth inequality even worse.
The world is deglobalizing. EU has been cutting off from Russia since the war started, and forcing medical industries to reshore since covid. At the same time it has begun drive to remilitarize itself. This means more heavy industry and all of it local.
There is brewing conflict across continents. India and Pakistan, Red sea region, South China sea. The list goes on and on. It's time to accept it. The world has moved on.
> Global connectedness is holding steady at a record high level based on the latest data available in early 2025, highlighting the resilience of international flows in the face of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty.
navel gazing will be shown to be a reactionary empty step, as all current global issues require more global cooperation to solve, not less.
the individual phenomena you describe are indeed detritus of this failed reaction to an increasing awareness of all humans of our common conditions under disparate nation states.
nationalism is broken by the realization that everyone everywhere is paying roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of their income in taxes, however what you receive for that taxation varies.
your nation state should have to compete with other nation states to retain you.
the nativist movement is wrongful in the usa for the reason that none of the folks crying about foreigners is actually native american,
but it's globally in error for not presenting the truth: humans are all your relatives, and they are assets, not liabilities: attracting immigration is a good thing, but hey feel free to recycle tired murdoch media talking points that have made us nothing but trouble for 40 years.
> There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, 'I don't see the use of this; let us clear it away.' To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: 'If you don't see the use of it, I certainly won't let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.' [1]
The problem with anti-border extremism is that it ignores the huge success national borders have had since pre-recorded history in building social cohesion, community, and more generally high-trust societies. All those things are precious, they are worth making sacrifices for, they are things small town America has only recently lost, and still remembers, and wants back. Maybe you haven't experienced those things, not like these people you so casually dismiss have.
We have had thousands of years of globalising. The trend has always been towards a more connected world. I strongly suspect the current Trump movement (and to an extent brexit depending on which brexit version you chose to listen to) will be blips in that continued trend. That is because it doesn't make sense for there to be 200 countries all experts in microchip manufacturing and banana growing.
It happens in cycles. Globalization has followed deglobalization before and vice versa. It's never been one straight line upward.
>That is because it doesn't make sense for there to be 200 countries all experts in microchip manufacturing and banana growing.
It'll break down into blocs, not 200 individual countries.
Ask Estonia why they buy overpriced LNG from America and Qatar rather than cheap gas from their next door neighbor.
If you think the inability to source high end microchips from anywhere apart from Taiwan is going to prevent a future conflict (the Milton Friedman(tm) golden arches theory) then I'm afraid I've got bad news.
>If you think the inability to source high end microchips from anywhere apart from Taiwan is going to prevent a future conflict (the Milton Friedman(tm) golden arches theory) then I'm afraid I've got bad news.
Why are you saying that? Again, I didn't suggest that.
Much of the globalized system is dependent upon US institutions which currently dont have a substitute.
BRICs have been trying to substitute for some of them and have made some nonzero progress but theyre still far, far away from stuff like a reserve currency.
Yeah you need a global navy that can assure the safe passage of thousands of ships daily. Now, how do you ensure that said navy will protect your interests? Nothing is free.
LLMs are the least deterministic means you could possibly ever have for automation.
What you are truly seeking is high level specifications for automation systems, which is a flawed concept to the degree that the particulars of a system may require knowledgeable decisions made on a lower level.
However, CAD/CAM, and infrastructure as code are true amplifiers of human power.
LLMs destroy the notion of direct coupling or having any layered specifications or actual levels involved at all, you try to prompt a machine trained in trying to ascertain important datapoints for a given model itself, when the correct model is built up with human specifications and intention at every level.
Wrongful roads lead to erratic destinations, when it turns out that you actually have some intentions you wish to implement IRL
If you give the same subject to two different journalists, or even the same one under different "temperature" settings, say, he had lunch or not, or he's in different moods, the outputs and approaches to the subject will be completely different, totally nondeterministic.
But that doesn't mean the article they wrote in each of those scenarios in not useful and economically valuable enough for them to maintain a job.
If you want to get to a destination you use google maps.
If you want to reach the actual destination because conditions changed (there is a wreck in front of you) you need a system to identify changes that occur in a chaotic world and can pick from an undefined/unbounded list of actions.
The general tone of this study seems to be "It's 1995, and this thing called the Internet has not made TV obsolete"; same for the Acemoglu piece linked elsewhere in the. Well, no, it doesn't work like that, it first comes for your Blockbuster, your local shops and newspaper and so on, and transforms those middle class jobs vulnerable to automation into minimum wages in some Amazon warehouse. Similarly, AI won't come for lawyers and programmers first, even if some fear it.
The overarching theme is that the benefits of automation flow to those who have the bleeding edge technological capital. Historically, labor has managed to close the gap, especially trough public education; it remains to be seen if this process can continue, since eventually we're bound to hit the "hardware" limits of our wetware, whereas automation continues to accelerate.
So at some point, if the economic paradigm is not changed, human capital loses and the owners of the technological capital transition into feudal lords.