Bluntly: nothing is safe from drones + a determined operator. No airfield, no aircraft on the ground, no government institution. Drones have changed warfare forever and Ukraine is writing the manual for future operations. What happened today was unthinkable 10 years ago. As one side effect I predict that at least in some places private drone ownership will become illegal. Think about it: for a few hundred K you get to take out a good chunk of a nuclear power's strike capability.
We’re in a strategic imbalance. Cold War air defences were trained on high-value targets, like strategic bombers and spy planes. So currently our air defences are overspecced for something like this.
Nothing about drones makes them inherently undetectable. You just need a different model. I suspect those should be commonplace within 20 years, potentially a decade.
> at least in some places private drone ownership will become illegal
I could see ownership being restricted in wartime. More likely is eager air defences shredding birds on perimeters.
Won't the cat and mouse game ultimately tilt to the side of defense? I imagine automated rifles are basically impossible to dodge. Automated rifles sound much more scary to me. Plant a rifle and wait a year, works on people and drones.
> Won't the cat and mouse game ultimately tilt to the side of defense?
Probably not. Most of the history of war is weapons getting stronger and stronger and defence getting harder and harder. E.g. in ancient times a shield or simple palisade could protect you, now even tanks and trenches are not safe. The days of being able to build a wall along a border and hold it against a peer adversary are long gone and not coming back.
I feel like this correlates with nations getting bigger over time and the square-cube law (or line-square law for national borders?) but I am not smart enough at military stuff to figure it out
I've read that it's kind of the converse - as military technology advances the size of a "minimum viable nation" increases. E.g. as gunpowder technology developed, anywhere that couldn't afford to field a gunpowder military got absorbed into somewhere that could.
On the other hand defensive alliances like NATO and the like pretty much work. A couple of centuries ago war was all over the place. These days most people never see it unless they deliberately go to a war zone.
You need a globe - an old school one, physical, a map of the black soils, population density and to remember how long it took Prigozhin to get to Moscow outskirts, with all the stops, interviews and scuffles with VVS.
To be fair, these planes were out in the open, protected by tires on the wings. If they were in simple hangars, this operation would have already been way harder.
