Breeding is a technology looking for a business case.
It's more expensive than just using fresh uranium in current market conditions. It's a way from keeping future uranium shortages from making nuclear power more expensive; it's not a way to make nuclear cheaper than it currently is.
It also apparently provides a way to make reactors that don’t depend as much on water so they don’t all have to be near the coast.
This would allow Western China to also develop reactors to help underpin their renewable and coal energy.
> The interest in MSR technology and Thorium breeding did not disappear however. China's nuclear power production relies heavily on imported uranium,[10] a strategic vulnerability in the event of i.e. economic sanctions. Additionally, the relative lack of water available for cooling PWRs west of the Hu line is a limiting factor for siting them there.
> also apparently provides a way to make reactors that don’t depend as much on water so they don’t all have to be near the coast
Non-water microreactors broadly fall into two categories: ones using a different moderator, most commonly sodium, a sodium salt or helium; and those using heat pipes. Most microreactor designs don’t use water.
The truth is that nuclear power is not that financially attractive at the present and would the price of uranium rise enough that breeders would become economically viable most countries would just stop bothering with nuclear power altogether.
The cost of nuclear power is almost entirely capex and financing, not opex. Uranium input cost for nuclear power plants is 0.5c/kWh. With breeders you can divide that by about 100.
At least as of a couple years ago nuclear costs just a little more than solar plus storage and that’s not stopping anyone heh.
Capex and financing is still an issue for many countries, and the opex is a non-zero commitment beyond just the fiscal portion. Most countries that pass-over nuclear energy are fairly justified in their decision. The status-quo is still not super psyched about nuclear proliferation.
There is room to change that, but the cards are very heavily stacked in China's favor. America's bad at the financing part, fickle when it comes to enforcement & supply chains, and ostensibly 2 days away from bailing on the IAEA itself. The proliferation-resistance of Thorium reactors gives China an export trump card that America will struggle to match.
> The truth is that nuclear power is not that financially attractive
Let me fix that for you: "The truth is that nuclear power is not that financially attractive in the bureaucratic high cost litigious Anglo-sphere". And that's pretty much all infrastructure these days, unfortunately.
They’re not financially attractive in other parts of the world either. China, a zero litigation single party state, is building some but a tiny % compared to their renewable buildout
"China currently has 58 operable reactors with a total capacity of 56.9 GW. A further 30 reactors, with a total capacity of 34.4 GW are under construction" [1]
So, yes, but...
China installed 256GW of solar in the first 6 months of 2025 [2]. A full year estimate of ~350gw. So, the total of all nuclear under construction is 1/10th of the solar they installed in one year.
Don't get me wrong, its cool to see diversity of non fossil sources, glad they are building some, but its a niche in their overall energy buildout. And they can only build that small niche because they dont have to be market priced, its state subsidized.
Comparing nuclear reactor capacity to solar capacity is misleading because renewable capacity dramatically overstates actual generation. IIRC The capacity factor for solar ranges between %5-%25 of total capacity generated.
That doesn't significantly change the argument. Most solar plants have capacity factors of around 20% (5% might apply to home systems, but not commerical), compared to nuclear which has around 80%. So a factor of 4. So numbers change a bit on the previous poster, China just installed 3x more solar in 1 year than all the nuclear under construction, or they essentially installed the same amout of solar in one year as all existing and under construction nuclear combined. And if we look at projections, next year they likely will install twice as much solar...
While China is often put up as the poster child for nuclear power, they are actually a great example of how nuclear is being overtaken by renewables. China's 2019 plan was that by 2035 nuclear would account for ~8% of generated electricity (up from ~5%). Since then percentage dropped to 4.5% (and the drop seems to be accelerating). Unless something dramatically changes nuclear will account for less than 4% (not the planned 8%) of generated electricity by 2035. All that is due to the raise of renewables (largely solar). I suspect we will not see China build close to those projected 200 GW and the percentage to be even lower, just due to the exponential growth in solar.
Yes yes, one of the usual reflexive context free points repeated every time solar comes up. Whatever the actual capacity factor is(5% is not a serious number ), I’m sure chinas energy planners know that, it’s hardly a gotcha. And still they’ve choose to build solar at a volume massively dwarfing nuclear
(Edit: cycomanic explained it much better and more patiently than me)
I don't think it's reflexive to point out that evaluating the headline numbers like that is misleading. People who are new to the topic will misinformed if they think you're describing an apples to apples comparison.
It's not the litigiousness that makes it expensive. France was producing nuclear power plants at a cost per watt that nearly matches modern China. In fact, the mind-numbing cost overruns seem unique to the US.
france cant do it any more either. Flamanville was 12 years late and [1] 400% over budget. EPR2 is already delayed and over budget and they havent even started building yet!
That might be somewhat true but Flamanville was still about $4/watt while Vogtle 3 and 4 (which were built around the same time) were about $15/watt. It's still hard to place France and the US in the same bucket. The US really is uniquely inept at nuclear costs
The UK does the same thing. In fact, its across the entire west. Its almost as if absurd over-regulation is expensive. The Vogtle plant construction for example had to deal with 3 different tranches of changes to the design caused by regulators. Its not corruption, its over-regulation. If it is corruption, it is corrupt politicians intentionally over-regulating because their backers make lots of money extracting FFs.
They highlight less the advantages from breeding, than other advantages of the molten salt design, like not needing a lot of cooling water, which allows this reactor to operate in the Gobi desert, the possibility of replacing the fuel without halting the reactor and various safety features.
Nuclear reactors don't need a particularly big amount of cooling water.
The thermodynamic cycle needs a cold source though, and it's most commonly water. This doesn't depend on the reactor design and this is equally as true of coal plants.
As long as you are making electricity out of a thermodynamic cycle, you need a heat source (be it a flame or a nuclear reaction) and a cold source.
As the reactor is operating in the Gobi desert and China claims that its main advantage for them is exactly this possibility of operating in the inland arid areas of the country, unlike their current reactors that must be installed only close to the sea, in the part of the country with abundant water, they must have a solution for the cold source that does not involve water.
Perhaps they use as a cold source the underground soil, though the soil thermal conductivity will limit the amount of power of the reactor. This reactor has a modest power, which could be explained by this constraint.
If the reactor is as safe as they claim, the moderate output power per reactor could be compensated by installing many such reactors.
> As the reactor is operating in the Gobi desert and China claims that its main advantage for them is exactly this possibility of operating in the inland arid areas of the country
This is mainly a feature of the reactor being small. If you don't have much heat to dissipate, even air cooling becomes feasible.
> unlike their current reactors that must be installed only close to the sea, in the part of the country with abundant water
In reality even current water-cooled reactors can be pretty efficient in terms of water use if you design the cooling system with that in mind. See the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station in Arizona.
> Perhaps they use as a cold source the underground soil
I'm not sure this would work, as you'd be storing heat in the soil without a real heat drain so the yield of the plant would decrease until it reaches zero.
For small reactors air or radiative cooling are an option though.
The use of water for moderation is one thing, the use of water for cooling is another thing, even if in many reactors water is used for both purposes.
A reactor can be moderated with something else than water, e.g. graphite, but it may still need water for cooling.
The amount of water needed for cooling is much more than needed for moderation.
So there is no doubt that many "non-water moderated reactor designs" still need copious amounts of cooling water.
Any "non-water moderated reactor design" that does not have liquid fuel, i.e. it is not a molten-salt design, must have a cooling fluid, though the fluid in the primary cooling circuit may be not water, but something else, e.g. molten metal (e.g. molten sodium) or supercritical carbon dioxide.
I believe the point was that non-water moderated designs typically operate at higher core temperature than LWRs, so they can reject waste heat at higher temperature (or reject less waste heat per unit of electrical energy produced), and that makes rejection to air more practical.
A very high temperature reactor might even be able to work with an open air Brayton cycle system, which would allow heat to be directly exhausted in that air stream. It would probably still need an in intermediate heat exchanger so the air wasn't being irradiated with neutrons.
No, because it would require very high temperature. The air coming out of the compressor of a gas turbine would already be hotter than the water/steam coming out of a LWR. It would likely involve a core temperature of around 1000 C. The turbine inlet temperature of a modern jet engine is at least 1500 C. There would likely be thermal NOx production, so post treatment of the gas might be necessary in an open cycle system.
There is no business case for basic research, but if you stop basic research long enough you will have no business. The United States and its allies seem to have completely forgotten this.
It makes sense for big monopolies like Bell, or the CCP. The investment can be justified if the ones investing are confident they will be able to capture the value and not some competitor.
Bell Labs also served to maintain positive perceptions of the monopoly. Unix was famously developed despite the knowledge that AT&T would not be able to offer it as an independent product.
I don't see how it follows. Anyway it's debatable if the current system with antitrust laws is true capitalism. One of those poorly-defined words that people argue over.
This isn't basic research. The US has had this tech for half a century. There's just no reason to do it. Uranium is plentiful and cheap and arguably safer.
The fuel cost of a NPP has almost no impact on the NPP's operational expenses and a LFTR (like all liquid fuel designs) is a far safer design. Nobody in the energy industry has talked about the fuel cost in nuclear in 50 years. It isn't even a consideration when comparing designs. Waste volume, safety, politics, and construction labor costs are the factors which are considered (also temp of the heat maybe).
Reducing the energy sector to pure business would probably work in the 1990s, but not now, when countries are afraid of strategic dependence on potentially hostile suppliers.
Uranium isn't as ubiquitous as, say, natural gas, and stockpiling it comes with a big heap of physical problems. I can definitely see countries spending on more expensive technology if it comes with more energy security.
Thorium MSRs don't make sense for the Americas, Europe or Australia. We have plenty of uranium.
Nuclear is receiving solid research backing in both America and China. (India is playing too. Austrlia is having an identity crisis.) Our different geologies mean there will probably be one solution for China, India and North Africa, on one hand, and the rest of the world, on the other hand.
I don't think Australia is having an identity crisis. There won't be research backing from Australia as the Nuclear agenda one party is pushing is essentially a cover story for replacing antique coal plants with gas plants. A genuine Nuclear plan for Australia would include realistic timelines and budgets, and use of other renewables to replace coal plants that are failing today while meeting climate targets. And meeting climate targets is important, because if we don't care about them then coal and gas will remain cheaper than Nuclear for Australia due to having large reserves.
The cost of the fuel is less than 0.1% of the cost of running a NPP. The cost of the fuel has almost nothing to do with the economics of nuclear power. And considering a liquid fueled reactor makes heat in the 900C range and a AP1400 makes heat in the 300C range, they aren't really substitutes for each other. The amount of incorrect information in this thread is truly shocking. For example, you can make synthetic fuel from a LFTR, you can't from a BWR or a PWR. That might be a valuable feature, don't you think.
> cost of the fuel has almost nothing to do with the economics of nuclear power
Who said this?
> considering a liquid fueled reactor makes heat in the 900C range and a AP1400 makes heat in the 300C range, they aren't really substitutes for each other
Nobody said this either.
There are more reactor designs in the world than LFTR, PWR and BWR, particularly if we're talking at the demonstration scale like this reactor.
Came online ~10 years ago. One could quibble about design and construction timelines; the reactor is still half-experimental, and the Russians are conducting that breeder program very slowly. But it's not a 1980s design frozen in time.
> Thorium MSRs don't make sense for the Americas, Europe or Australia. We have plenty of uranium.
That covers the input side of th equation. Thorium can help transform the outputs of our existing reactors into waste with orders of magnitude better in terms of dangerous lifespan
Thorium is and will always be a less desirable fuel source - except if you don't have access to uranium or are trying to make your MSRs work (which to date have signs of progress but no proof of commercial viability). MSR also inherently unstable due to salt.
I'm glad people are finding more research and hopefully this will unlock other tech but this has limited impact on the current trajectory of commercial nuclear and the designs currently in the labs.
Though the commentary in here does remind me how much hype has infused the nuclear space - good thing on the whole as long as an eventual AI shakeout doesn't knee cap all the good work being done.
This is US tech that China is copying. We could have done this at anytime in the last 60 years. The blocker isn't technology, its scientifically uninformed politics.
No the West doesn't need this technology given its significant amount of uranium supply. Is it a nice to have - sure.
For nuclear the playbook goes - design of technology is in the west. China copycats the reactor and puts it through their deployment engine (see current nuclear deployment). Maybe that changes -- but this doesn't prove that.
China pushing the development is fantastic though for the world to give their head a shake and finally get back in the game.
MSRs are riding the Oklo hype train and have a long way to go.
China has engaged in industrial espionage on an unprecedented scale. To the extent there is delusion, it's in American spies being slow to returning the favour.
I mean we're already doing that in many avenues. Solar being the most obvious. The only functioning solar manufacturing plants in the US are Chinese-owned and are only here to take advantage of subsidies.
Plenty has been learned by the US/West from copying their approach to agriculture, robotics in factories, mining, drones, etc. Have you seen their electromagnetic catapult technology?? That stuff seems like its from the space-age! There's even plenty of tech that we can't really explain like the all-moving wingtips on the new J-50s. (and yes, I'm avoiding talking about their supersonic cruise missiles)
I work in industry automation and use for every day calculation mostly my HP 35s, even I also have a HP 50g under my desk and more than a PC on my desk.
It's just for me the most easy way to calculate things with current and power for everyday use.
And .. even the basic Windows calc app is so slow to start, I already finished until the app started.
I have a 35s as well; I was made fun of for using one (you know you're sitting at a calculator that is 1000s of time more powerful right?). I still use it.
Just as a fun fact, some of the largest tractors made these days actually rival F1 cars in horsepower output. John Deere 9RX goes up to 913 HP for example.
My HP 35s sits between the 2 halves of my split keyboard. I use it multiple times per day. It's just faster for quick calculations as the UI is very well done and it turns on instantly.
I bought a 35s and found the ergonomics not as good as my old, dead 11C. So I bought an antique 15C on eBay, and it sits right by my keyboard all day.
I'll use the built in calc in macOS Spotlight for many things, but plenty of times each day I use the HP. Example: yesterday I calculated an angle in degrees by reading off approximate x, y coordinates from a graph on my screen. Swapping windows to a calculator app, repositioning them to see both at the same time, just too fiddly, and clicking the calc app moves the cursor so I have to remember the numbers as I switch context.. The physical HP in front of me leaves my screen undisturbed. Easy.
In sport, are such super-humans allowd to play with normal people.
In society, i guess, if such super-humans are designed to have a 500 year life, they have automatic adusted there pension age to something like 450 years.
In law, because such super smart super-humans allways know things better, the fines are 100 times higher.
On the other side, of course, who would not choose the best for the best for the own child. Why should a person wear glasses the whole life, if it is possible to switch a few genoms.
I mean if we look at the athletes around before the invention of steroids, they weren’t genetically blessed at all.
Is Usain Bolt actually superior, or is it purely the drugs? It’s difficult to say, because the drugs don’t exist and nobody ever takes them and it’s all skill and talent.
> I mean if we look at the athletes around before the invention of steroids, they weren’t genetically blessed at all.
What are you talking about? If they had no steroids, and their training was far worse than what we have now (running on wood chip tracks), and they were still the best individual in the world at doing their thing, they were definitely genetically blessed.
>In sport, are such super-humans allowd to play with normal people.
There are already prohibitions on allowing transgender people to participate in some sports. It seems unlikely that the children of ordinary people will be allowed to participate in sports with children who are known to be genetically enhanced so that they are more powerful, etc. It is an interesting question though.
I agree. I could see an opportunity for a future entertainment network or sporting competition where the only participants allowed to compete are those who can document their own genetics. One set of games for ordinary people and another for those people whose parents chose to try to engineer a result. All of this is so new that it may not happen in my lifetime but I'm not prepared to say that it can't.
Like most things it'll be the self-interest of the majority disguised as the "right" decision. If a small fraction of the population are genetically engineered to be more physically capable, the "right" decision will be to exclude them. Once they're a significant fraction of the population, the moral consensus will suddenly shapeshift.
It’s surely not just (or even mostly) a moral decision but a practical one too. Superhumans that dominate mere-humans would make that sport de facto superhuman-only, so if mere-humans want to enjoy competitive sport (and we do!) we’d organize a league of our own. Pretty much exactly what happens with sex and weight categories today.
A lot of elite athletes already select their partners from their peer group. NFL football has examples of second and third generation players trying to make it big in the league since the financial incentives are so huge. It's a lot like antique royalty marrying distant cousins in order to avoid marrying down into the "commoner" ranks. Controlling the bloodlines in order to have kids who can meet or exceed their parents' accomplishments.
I guess soon the west has to copy chinas tech.
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