> There was actually an exercise done to work this out, at the direction of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). [...] In the CAIB’s scenario, Atlantis would have launched with a four-person crew: two pilots, and two EVA mission specialists. [...]
> A Columbia rescue mission would have been the most monumentally difficult and epic space mission in history, and it would have required absolutely everything going right to bring the crew home safely. But NASA has shown time and again its ability to rise to the occasion and bring its formidable engineering and piloting expertise to bear. Instead, the worst instincts of the agency - to micromanage and engage in wishful thinking instead of clear-eyed analysis - doomed the crew.
So it's "what is the probability both are girls?" vs. "what is the probability the other is a girl?" and most people will hear the latter and answer 1/2 whereas the question is the former and its answer is 1/3. Do I have that right?
"The question writer took all sets of two child families and ruled out the bb case. Then they asked the exact question above" This is 1/3 chance - select gg from [gg,bg,gb]'
vs
"The question writer came across a girl from a two child family, then they asked the exact question above". This is 1/2 chance - select gg from [gg, gg, bg, gb] with gg listed twice since there's two ways to select a girl from that set; ie. coming across a girl is twice as likely to occur from the gg case than it is either gb or bg.
I think that's the clearest wording to get the message across. Either way it's the exact same question but it reasonably has a completely different answer. There's no way to resolve this ambiguity with the question as written.
That's a good framing. It's similar to the fact that the chance of a given star being in a multiple system (~47% in our vicinity [0]) is significantly higher than the chance of a given system having multiple stars (~30%), because counting by individual stars gives more weight to the multiple systems.
Those questions are equivalent. What is important is the conditional “… given that I looked at a random child and it was a girl” / “… given that I looked at both children and at least one of them was a girl”.
The issue with asking whether the other is a girl is how you choose the first one.
If you look at one random child, see it's a boy and exclude the family, even though the other child may be a girl, then you get the 1/2 probability. If however in that case you also look at the second child, see that's a girl and consider the family anyway, then you get the 1/3
I was curious about the "US Thermal Power Plant Water Use By County" graph which has a very dark square in the SE corner of NC. It's Brunswick County. I guess it's due to the Brunswick Nuclear Generating Station:
I've never had any trouble with it on my series 9 (purchased Dec 2023 just before the feature was disabled). It's always closely matched the fingertip meter that I have. Which is to say they both always read >= 95% for the most part.
A few years back I was pacing a marathon and toward the end it was just me and a recent college graduate. Something caused me to mention AOL and she hadn't heard of it. I mentioned CD-ROMs and she said: "you mean, like for music?". She had no idea what CD-ROMs were. So that's was from someone born in maybe 1995? It's amazing how something that was as ubiquitous as AOL (and it was ubiquitous) can come and go in a single generation.
She was familiar with CDs for music but not with CD-ROMs for distributing software.
I also just double-checked this with my 24 y/o daughter and much to my chagrin, she also wasn't familiar with CD-ROMs. So that lead to a conversation about CD-ROM drives, ripping music, Napster, ... all things she was unfamiliar with.
http://xahlee.info/kbd/i/Apple_IIe_keyboard_f91f4.jpg
https://www.applefritter.com/files/styles/95-percent/public/...
The IIgs keyboard had both the "open apple" and "looped square" symbols on that key, with the "closed apple" becoming option:
https://i0.wp.com/www.applerescueofdenver.com/wp-content/upl...
The extended keyboard had both keys on each side of the spacebar:
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fa...
On the Mac, the keys were always officially called command and option, as far as I recall:
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0653/6917/8326/products/25...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_keyboards#Layout_and_fea...
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