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This is very interesting, but I wish the article did more to offer some common hypotheses on exactly why this happens.


From what I understand, they've used a whole bunch of different kinds of AI models over the years.

They've been reasonably transparent about how things work, e.g. this blog post from 2018: https://www.grammarly.com/blog/transforming-writing-style-wi...


> There’s something magical about diving into solving a bug. I’m able to find real focus, time flies and I come out the other end tired yet invigorated. I really enjoy these kinds of bug-hunting puzzles and I seem to be fairly good at it.1 But maybe I’m just overly stubborn (in a good way!).

This is a really eloquent way of describing the feeling. I feel like most people have the instinctive response to ask "why do you care?"

Honestly, not clear! Sometimes it's just satisfying to leave stuff better than you found it. Fixing a bug is therapeutic like cleaning your house, only it's more intellectually interesting :)


Oh for a while you are Sherlock Holmes and that can be a heady feeling. Time pressure I don't like much but otherwise bug finding can be a lot of fun.


There are many things that could result in what you're describing. If in USA, you should visit a psych MD to discuss your concerns.

I have experienced similar issues and received medication for [underlying condition], which has helped immensely.


May I ask what condition you had/have and what medication helped?


Please make sure you put in the work before you start taking meds.

I'd like to share a personal story in the hope that it helps you. My brother turned me on to Dr. Amen. We both took his on-line test for ADHD[1] and both tested positive for multiple forms of ADHD. He agreed that my results were much worse.

My brother used that as an immediate excuse to take meds. I instead signed up for his on-line course and lost count of the number of times he said "this practice has been found to be just as effective as medication". I put in the work and it made a major lasting difference in my life. My brother didn't bother with the work, the course, or the recommendations and is still searching for that magic pill or mushroom that will "fix" him.

As an aside, the powerful realization while taking that test is how bad it made me feel. I had flashbacks to all the people I disappointed over the years. It's like every question was "are you also shitty in this way ?". It made me realize: 1) I didn't want to be shitty anymore, 2) with good practices and habits I can fix/mitigate my flaws, 3) and failing meant being dependent on big pharma and doctors who might not have my best intentions.

Please ask yourself sincerely: Have you put in the work ? Do you really care about improving ? Is there a single _simple_ new habit you know would improve your life ? Are you going to start right now working on that one simple habit and writing yourself an email daily/weekly to check your progress ? No one is coming to the rescue. Don't waste your money and a coach's time if you can't even do the bare minimum.

[1] I believe this is the test (I took it 5 years ago) https://theaddquiz.com/


> I believe this is the test

That test appears to be crappy lead gen for their online clinic. That's my expert opinion.

FWIW, I don't know if anyone in the world is truly neurotypical, but I am not aware of any suffering of a psychological nature, in my own life.

I answered the test questions to the best of my ability, and received a "diagnosis" of an ADHD type (not generally recognized by the medical community), which the clinic's own literature describes as exclusively having symptoms that I explicitly answered Never or Rarely to.

I know they didn't have much to work with, but an honest response would have been more along the lines of "You tabulated 11.3% on our scale of this ADHD type, you're probably not significantly impacted!"


> My brother turned me on to Dr. Amen.

Red flag detected.

Dr. Amen is basically the Dr. Oz of ADHD treatment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Amen#Reception_of_ideas

> "this practice has been found to be just as effective as medication".

No other research supports his conclusions. It's so fascinating that he can use brain-imaging to diagnosis 7 'types of ADHD', when no one else has ever discovered more than three subtypes of ADHD, and no other researchers have even been able to successfully diagnosis any mental disorder via brain imaging.

Let me put it this way, unless you are an exceptional individual, "putting in the work" and overcoming ADHD typically means one thing: You do not have ADHD.

> doctors who might not have my best intentions.

Do you not see the irony in this statement?

Please ask yourself sincerely: Do you truly think you have ADHD because an online test's results? Do you really think people with ADHD do not care about improving? Do you think people with ADHD have not tried habits they know would improve their lives?

Do you understand how many people with ADHD take medication, use behavioral interventions, and still struggle?


I learned recently the "OHIO method" – Only Handle It Once.

If something is easy to deal with right now, just deal with it immediately.

For me, it's been dishes, trash, and organising (e.g. keys not in the key-bowl; cables not in the cable drawer) where it's helped most. I'd say it's a 30% improvement, which doesn't necessarily sound great, but it's all about things that require almost zero effort.

I'll take a look into your reference soon!


To someone else reading this who thinks they may have ADHD, I really implore you not to waste your time with non pharmacological routes. You can’t wish or think or really want your way out of this. You need a leg up, and it has to come from within yet also without you.

Speaking from experience. Advice like the kind I’m replying to wasted so much of my time. For some reason everyone is an expert on this particular topic. No, the experts are (ignore pop psych shysters also).


Dr. Amen can sometimes drive folks towards effective treatments, but many of his diagnostic methods are full on quackery. I'm glad he was able to give you some guidance that worked for you, but he has created a lot of harm and a lot of misdiagnoses at great personal inrichment.

Personal story: I have pretty severe ptsd, and was being abused at the time I visited. I had a full brain scan done as an adolescent using his nuclear imaging technique, and the results were that I should take X and Y and Z medication, none of which worked. They promised "a new life" on these, but they did not treat the underlying causes, nor did they screen for them. This is now 25 years later, but he is still pushing the same diagnostic techniques that ignored the underlying reasons for my issues. This was at a cost of some $13,000. I still have the brain scan and the recommendations - they are near-total bullshit.

He is a Dr. Oz style quack who is out for massive personal enrichment, and nobody has been able to replicate any of his own developed techniques because they are not real.

More sources:

https://quackwatch.org/research-projects/amen/

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Daniel_Amen


Regrettably, it's a cocktail of highly interrelated psychiatric issues:

1. cPTSD 2. ADHD 3. Depression 4. (Relatively mild / high-functioning) autism spectrum disorder

Likely combined with aftereffects from mild traumatic brain injury (i.e. a high number of concussions), but this part is largely speculative.

Would not recommend attempting to research your way into a solution without the help of a trained practitioner.


I've been diagnosed with cPTSD, GAD, Depression, and ADHD. Ketamine therapy has helped to grow awareness & understanding but little in the way of behavioral change. I've avoided stimulants thus far as I don't want to resort to that path just yet.

What helped you? Traditional psychotropics? Psychedelics?


For ADHD, stimulants like Ritalin have the opposite effect. Your brain goes... quiet. In a really good way. You can focus on what you want to, with ease. If you have a diagnosis don't be afraid of exploring medical treatment. Just be aware that while it does solve the problem of being able to stay focused and on task, it does not solve the problem of figuring out what to focus on. Also some people react differently to different medications. If Ritalin doesn't work, Elvanse or one of the others might work better. It can take some trial and error to figure out.


I want to add, try starting with lowest dose! For me 3.1mg Adzenys or 10mg Vyvanse (both lowest dose possible) have a clearly noticeable and beneficial effect without overriding my core personality and preferred mental tendencies (though this along with a low/moderate dose of NDRI and SSRI)


> I've avoided stimulants thus far as I don't want to resort to that path just yet.

I'm interested in knowing why you're reluctant to try stimulants. what you describe in your OP sounds a lot like the symptoms of ADHD and stimulant medication helps many people with the exact symptoms you list with little to no side effects. why leave that on the table?


Isn't that somewhat of a survivor bias? People with ADHD on stimulants would typically have little to no side-effects because if they had moderate to severe side-effects, then I doubt a medical professional would keep them on stimulants.

I treat my ADHD with stimulants, and I would say there are definitely side-effects, but the side-effects are mostly manageable.

While I do benefit from stimulants, I personally believe the benefits are exaggerated, and apparently the Cochrane Library does not disagree with me:

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD...


Mainly cardiac concerns. I tried stimulants for a short stint and my baseline heart rate was noticeably elevated.


In terms of medication, my own personal experience has been:

* Ketamine was life changing (for depression symptoms)

* Stimulants help me a lot. The first time I took adderall, I cried, because I had never experienced such a relaxed state of calm or peace. I haven't been able to get any due to the longstanding shortage, and my quality of life has suffered as a result. Other drugs help me to control my focus, but they don't tend to help my memory or emotional regulation much.

* I also take antidepressants that are slightly helpful.

* Diet, exercise, and sunlight make a huge difference.


Adderall was great at first but literally a week of daily use and I felt like all it was back to normal.

Felt like Im just damaging my physical health for no good reason


How much content do you consume?

I’d say start your day off with absolutely nothing. Just go outside and go for a walk with no phone. No music. No technology. From the moment you wake up, try a one hour walk like this (map out a route that takes about an hour so you don’t need a clock with you). Let your mind fly, then after the hour is up, write down some notes about your thoughts. Try this for a week.


I consume a lot of content as a coping mechanism for what feels like an insurmountable stack of issues with no clear path to addressing them.


Then I think you already know the solution to getting unstuck.


There are some nonstimulant medications available, generally less effective. There's a good overview from a medical article published in a seemingly legit journal by seemingly legit authors: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3000197/.


Do you do caffeine?


If you don't mind me asking, what was the source of the concussions?

I have a similar profile, along with seizures in childhood that led to repeated head injuries. Cause and effect was always an open question for me.


What exactly would you suggest it's a leading indicator of? Churn?

Ultimately if it matters, it should have to be an input to the cash flow time series -- mediated by churn -- no? (Article means to frame free cash flow as a series rather than a point-in-time value).

If you're interested in forecasting, as a company, you should know the things that mean your customer is not doing well within the specific context of your specific business. E.g. in software, you should have a customer health score that's built up from product data. Or you could ask simple questions that are easily interpreted, e.g. asking "how would you rate X's value for money," or "how satisfied are you with X," or even "have you recommended X in the last Y months." These things have a cleaner relationship to future business metrics and a tidier interpretation.


Hopefully, it should be a leading indicator for negative churn -- per-account and new account growth / virality -- and for more complicated products, a way to slice that across different personas and features. ('bakers at high-end restaurants have high NPS for the new precision thermometer tracker while those at regular shops ignore them and have low NPS.')

Esp in early days of B2B products, it's hard to get that because you don't have the volumes and velocity of b2c nor a good way to detect and attribute viral activation. If you are in a startup and not riding the channel of some megacorp, even more so. Alternatives like signups or other activation checkpoints, or say qualitative interviews, are also interesting, but even more spotty. (Ex: startups raising based on GitHub stars.) We don't do NPS as we have our plate full with known funnel holes through less annoying data collection methods, but as soon as we are happy with the baseline funnel, that's the simple next step.


My own understanding is that it’s supposed to be a prediction input organic growth and nothing more. All it’s really telling you is whether a customer is likely to provide you with another customer, which is why only really high values answers matter, because “hell yeahs” are all that really matter.

I’m skeptical as to its usefulness even for this, but most companies I’ve worked for use it as a general KPI which is even more aggravating.


If you go into the trouble of collecting it, it's reasonable to use as a KPI, as it carries useful information.

I imagine you are annoyed that they optimize for it. And yes, it's not reasonable to optimize for it. Why do people optimize every KPI?


>Why do people optimize every KPI?

Because if it's not worth optimizing around, how key can it be?


You can do a lot of things with a number that are not optimizing.

For example, you can satisfy it, you can alert on behavior, or you can use it as a control (but ok, maybe this one makes a two number KPI instead of two KPIs).


I'd expect it to be a leading indicator of user growth / churn, yes.


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