> It seems like so many "best practices" are really thinly veiled attempts at exploding complexity
I'll bite. :D
It's a bit more nuanced than that IMO, the "deploy often" mantra is only as good as the process around release + deploy. If you half-ass testing and push to production without without a process for verification -- or if, say, your deploy process is half-baked, or your staging environment is worthless -- you can probably expect "interesting" production deploys on a pretty regular basis.
As much as we'd like to pretend we're all good engineers, this happens more often than you'd expect -- even with good engineers: at some point a company transitions from scrappy startup to a shambling beast, and the things that used to work for a scrappy startup (like skimping on testing and dealing with failures in production) are insufficient when you've got more eyes on the product. Further, the engineering culture remains stuck in "scrappy startup" mode long after the shambling has begun.
And all that's ignoring the fact that less frequent deploys with more changes have their own set of problems. We actually got to a point with deploys of a certain distributed system such that we were terrified if we had more than a few days worth of changes queued up. So many things that could go wrong! :)
> We create ourselves so many of the problems we are paid to solve.
This, on the other hand, I completely 100% agree with: if not us, then who? :)
We create ourselves so many of the problems we are paid to solve.