This story is going to get very boring very quickly.
Little will be decided until close to the deadline in two years.
In the meantime life will go on as normal as it has for the last year.
What is much more interesting is what will happen shortly in France and whether the phenomena that led to Trump and Brexit are repeated elsewhere in Europe.
So far it's looking good. Wilders did not make significant headway in NL, AfD is down significantly in the polls in Germany and the EU politician who returned to head the SPD in Germany has dramatically reversed that party's flagging poll numbers.
Opinion polling for the expected 2nd round of polling in the French presidential elections put Macron at almost 2/3rd majority vs. Le Pen.
Overall, pro-EU sentiment in EU member nations is rising.
Maybe, but opinion polls got it wrong in the cases of Trump and Brexit.
It seems a lot of people who intend vote on the right (for the want of a better term) are coy about it when asked.
However, I mostly talked about relative movement of polls. While not entirely impossible, it seems implausible that people should suddenly all get more coy. Especially after "their side" just had huge victories. If anything, I'd expect them to be less coy than before, because they just got validated.
And the one absolute I mentioned about the French runoff is 2/3rd vs. 1/3rd. Trump and Brexit polls were never that far apart.
Le Pen is steady at about 1/3 Macron is at about the same with everyone expecting the final 1/3 to support him in a run-off. Seems pretty safe for Macron. I don't know much about France, is there ever much of a shift before the second vote historically?
Little will be decided until close to the deadline in two years.
In the meantime life will go on as normal as it has for the last year.
What is much more interesting is what will happen shortly in France and whether the phenomena that led to Trump and Brexit are repeated elsewhere in Europe.