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Yeah, stuff was never scarce. I don't know where on earth you got that idea. After World War 2 the US stumbled upon the greatest wealth creation machine the planet has ever known, a consumer-driven economy that literally printed trillions of dollars for decades and is still mostly going. Americans have never wanted for stuff for the last 70 years. (There was hiccup with the oil situation there for a bit but that was cleared up.)

The issue is that some of the "stuff" Americans wanted was cars and big houses. The country bet big (again to the tune of trillions) buying a crap ton of cars, building endless roads, and building big houses out in the middle of nowhere. It's this model that drove the creation of the uniquely suburban mall. And this was a deliberate choice driven by the government at every level. The history of post-war America is the history of government-subsidized urban sprawl.

It was a big mistake and one that the country will be paying for, for the next century. It's simply not sustainable. The economic forces at work here are a consequence of the laws of physics. Big houses and big cars far from the "noisy, dirty" city are expensive. Everything gets cheaper as density goes up. At some point some critical services become practically free due to market volume and competition. (In highly dense Asian cities it's possible to eat decently for $5/day. That's breakfast, lunch and dinner.)

The other side of this equation is that American wages have collapsed. Forget growth, forget stagnation, wages are going down and the coming generations will be poorer than their forbearers. So while it was possible for the average Joe in 1965 to afford a big car and a big house far outside the city, 2020 Joe will not be able to do that and eat and have health insurance. And this is where physics kicks in: Americans can no longer afford the entire "exurb lifestyle" that they love so much. Economic success now lies in the city.

The lessons to be learned here are not new. They are as old as human civilization. Prosperous empires over-expand and over-build and eventually collapse due to endless war, internal conflicts and better competition. Density wins because it is much, much more efficient (especially in a highly competitive and dynamic globalized economy). And, most importantly, sustainability matters. A lot. Sustainability may be all that matters. Human laws aren't laws at all -- the right lawyer, the right judge, the right bribes can turn most laws into minor obstacles. Every (human) thing can be negotiated. The only laws that can't be broken or subverted, that can't be negotiated or changed, are indeed the laws of physics and biology.




So while I sympathize with the overarching view of your comment, the details are too incoherent for its being so argumentative.

> Yeah, stuff was never scarce. I don't know where on earth you got that idea. After World War 2 the US stumbled upon the greatest wealth creation machine the planet has ever known

So how does this mean stuff was not scarce before WWII?

> Big houses and big cars far from the "noisy, dirty" city are expensive

So, given that they'd already been afforded at one point, the real problem is declining income to cover their carrying cost. So let's focus on that rather than a red herring of one symptom. If it's a given that wages will go down forever, then why even worry about regrouping in the cities when that would only stave off the trend for a few decades? Better to focus on the reason real wages are going down!

> Prosperous empires over-expand and over-build and eventually collapse due to endless war, internal conflicts and better competition. Density wins because it is much, much more efficient

These two bits do not follow. If empires collapse due to being trapped into being too spread out, then that implies it is impossible for them to naturally shrink back down and grow denser! Still I would posit this applies in the much more general sense of spread out in the world rather than a single defensible landmass. I'd venture to say those foreign military bases in all of the colonies use a lot more resources (including the wars they encourage!) than people commuting from suburbs, my own love for walkability notwithstanding.

PS You can't bounce back and forth between the economic paradigms of resources and financials. While better competition makes prices lower, that doesn't affect resource usage in a major way - compared to say economies of scale. Don't conflate the two.


Yes!




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