It's crazy for the US to be bound to such a treaty with Russia while the most powerful country of the last 200 years not named the United States is rising rapidly to superpower status and is entirely unbound by the treaty. Not just unbound, they would never sign it under any circumstances.
Russia is a joke of a potential problem next to China, both economically and militarily. As China's technological capabilities mature in the military sphere, the former USSR will be a joke compared to what China will be capable of. The USSR always struggled with true global projection, that's not a problem China is going to have eventually.
Russia can't keep up with either the US or China. The US added $1.1-$1.2 trillion to its economic output in 2018. Russia's entire annual economic output is $1.5 trillion. At a 3% of GDP defense spending rate, the US can add 1/2 of Russia's defense spending every year (even after you adjust for the difference in costs between them, it's an impossible situation for Russia). China was the size of Russia's economy 20 years ago, now it's nearing ten times larger. Russia will never be able to spend the money necessary to keep up with the two superpowers on conventional forces and technology, they'll only be able to keep up on very narrow high value tech (eg hypersonic missiles or the S-300/400/500 missile systems). As Russia's economy goes nowhere for the next decade, they'll continue to try to flex their regional power to divert attention. However, Russia is never going to be more than a regional problem.
If you're the US, you don't want to be in a position of dramatic military weakness to China at any point or in any critical weapons segment over the next 20-30 years at least. While the US can just withdraw from Asia and go home (nicely protected by the enomority of the Pacific), if the US doesn't keep up with China (ideally working in tandem with its allies to offset the burden of cost), it ultimately leaves Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Philippines and every other ally in greater Asia in a very vulnerable position of forced deference as China's military pushes outward.
> China was the size of Russia's economy 20 years ago, now it's nearing ten times larger. ... As Russia's economy goes nowhere for the next decade...
Something doesn't add up here - why is Russia's economy so backward and heavily dependent on extractive industries in the first place? Yes they have a huge landmass which makes extractive industry comparatively easy and convenient, but so does Canada and nobody would describe the Canadian economy as anything less than highly developed and quite competitive. My guess is that there's no real reason why Russia couldn't start growing on a China-like path to ultimately be as highly-developed as the average Western country, and that the lack of any such growth is to do with short-term political stances, not any inherent or outside factors.
Yes, I too wonder the same - they have abundant natural resources (even oil) and have well established R&D centres that can match the west in output, and yet they seem to not have any capable economist?
> Russia is a joke of a potential problem next to China, both economically and militarily.
You overestimate China's capabilities, and underestimate Russia's. Russia is better at international politics than China, while China's dominating and new found arrogance makes potential allies uncomfortable. Not to mention that Russia still has a better military, and better weapons.
In both Africa and Asia, nations that welcomed Chinese investment are now very uncomfortable on the demands being placed on them. Increasing comparisons are being made to the way India handles their diplomatic relations with them (less aggressive, more cooperative). For example, both Maldives and Sri Lanka have turned to India after Chinese economic investments soured there.
Second, while India today may be faltering under the current inexperienced, right-wing loonies running it, the previous government with Dr. Manmohan Singh at the helm has already demonstrated that India has the potential to take on the Chinese both economically and militarily.
Ultimately, India as an ally of both the Russians and the West, knows that it will have to bear the brunt of any new future cold war between China and the west and is preparing for it.
Russia is a joke of a potential problem next to China, both economically and militarily. As China's technological capabilities mature in the military sphere, the former USSR will be a joke compared to what China will be capable of. The USSR always struggled with true global projection, that's not a problem China is going to have eventually.
Russia can't keep up with either the US or China. The US added $1.1-$1.2 trillion to its economic output in 2018. Russia's entire annual economic output is $1.5 trillion. At a 3% of GDP defense spending rate, the US can add 1/2 of Russia's defense spending every year (even after you adjust for the difference in costs between them, it's an impossible situation for Russia). China was the size of Russia's economy 20 years ago, now it's nearing ten times larger. Russia will never be able to spend the money necessary to keep up with the two superpowers on conventional forces and technology, they'll only be able to keep up on very narrow high value tech (eg hypersonic missiles or the S-300/400/500 missile systems). As Russia's economy goes nowhere for the next decade, they'll continue to try to flex their regional power to divert attention. However, Russia is never going to be more than a regional problem.
If you're the US, you don't want to be in a position of dramatic military weakness to China at any point or in any critical weapons segment over the next 20-30 years at least. While the US can just withdraw from Asia and go home (nicely protected by the enomority of the Pacific), if the US doesn't keep up with China (ideally working in tandem with its allies to offset the burden of cost), it ultimately leaves Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Philippines and every other ally in greater Asia in a very vulnerable position of forced deference as China's military pushes outward.