I have a few; assuming this question has been made in good faith.
> I think it has been overstated how unique the approach is. As in many other countries, we aim to flatten the curve, slowing down the spread as much as possible — otherwise the health-care system and society are at risk of collapse.
It is not overstated how unique the approach is, primarily because it is totally and completely unique and quite wildly so compared to not only Swedens nordic neighbours but the entire world.
> there is not much legal possibility to close down cities in Sweden using the present laws.
this is an argument for creation of those kinds of laws, that's the job of parliament and generally has happened in most other countries in Europe.
> Around 15 people from the agency meet every morning and update decisions and recommendations according to the data collection and analysis. We talk to regional authorities twice per week.
Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, the lack of testing (it is advised _not_ to seek testing) it's not even possible to have real numbers.
The whole idea of treating this as a scientific approach requires the collection of data which is not being done.
I live in Sweden and what I'm witnessing is:
1) Offices have closed down, working from home is prevelant
2) Restaurants are definitely not closed, many are busting at the seams. Parks are full, social distancing measures are taken only by the few.. I wear a mask when walking around and I get scoffed at.
3) People 'trust the government' and see that there's no restrictions so they don't put any restrictions on themselves. outwardly they think they've done enough.
4) Gyms are open, my PT had COVID-19 symptoms and continued to go to the gym, she was not tested because seeking testing is discouraged.
A lot of the predictive modelling is based on models made in january and assumes "influenza-grade" immunity (as in you have essentially life-time antibodies to the current strain) but there is no scientific study to defend that assertion for SARS-CoV-2. In fact new studies seem to indicate that antibodies drop off significantly within months.
> she was not tested because seeking testing is discouraged
Can you elaborate? Is testing discouraged by the government? Medical professionals? Social pressures? Do you think the discouragement stems from a lack of available testing kits or from a place of fear/issue avoidance?
Testing was discouraged due to lack of reagents. They wanted to make sure what little reagents they had were used for hospitalized people and the elderly. There simply was not enough reagents in Sweden to do contact tracing at any useful scale, so we stopped doing that when we started to get too many cases.
That is what I heard from people I know who work at or close to the labs doing the testing.
Government and Healthcare systems are intermixed in this case.
The healthcare system recommends staying away from doctors offices to prevent the risk of spreading the virus, thus you will not be tested until it progresses badly enough to go to ICU.
The government agencies tell you to stay home and not meet anyone if you have symptoms. Yes, you are unlikely to be tested at this point due to lack of resources. Those who are tested are: medical staff and patients who are admitted and kept in hospital care for covid.
Yes, it was asked in good faith. With that follows some good faith follow-up questions:
> It is not overstated how unique the approach is, primarily because it is totally and completely unique and quite wildly so compared to not only Swedens nordic neighbours but the entire world.
AFAIU Tegnell is meaning that the swedish approach is the same in that the measures will have the same effect as complete and total lockdown, just not forced by the government? So the difference is actually quite subtle (enforced by law vs enforced by the people) or am I misunderstanding here?
> this is an argument for creation of those kinds of laws, that's the job of parliament and generally has happened in most other countries in Europe.
I see what you mean, but given that the experts are also saying that it is not necessary, should it be pushed through anyway?
> Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth, the lack of testing (it is advised _not_ to seek testing) it's not even possible to have real numbers.
If I understand your point here correctly, is that you feel that having uptodate numbers is more important than the government agencies currently do?
> Twice per week is nothing, given that the virus has a 4-7day lag in even presenting symptoms and the exponential rate of growth,
WHy is the 4-7 dag lag important with the twice-per-week meetings with regional authorities?
> 4) Gyms are open, my PT had COVID-19 symptoms and continued to go to the gym, she was not tested because seeking testing is discouraged.
> I wear a mask when walking around and I get scoffed at.
What are your thoughts on the Swedish Public Health Agency's information that masks are not needed?
Just fyi, I'm also Swedish and live in Stockholm so also seeing all this first-hand. And I put a lot of faith into what the government and their agencies are saying so it's interesting to hear from someone who doesn't!
> AFAIU Tegnell is meaning that the swedish approach is the same in that the measures will have the same effect as complete and total lockdown, just not forced by the government? So the difference is actually quite subtle (enforced by law vs enforced by the people) or am I misunderstanding here?
The outcome might be "the same" (only history will tell us if this is actually true) but the path we're trying to follow is not the same as any other country. This is why it is unique. Not the outcome, the path.
> I see what you mean, but given that the experts are also saying that it is not necessary, should it be pushed through anyway?
FWIW there are many in the scientific community in Sweden who desperately do not agree with Anders. Ideally a technocracy is great, but this does not feel like a technocracy. I'm not saying that because of political pressures, but because the "do nothing" approach is not based in any science that anybody can cite.
> If I understand your point here correctly, is that you feel that having uptodate numbers is more important than the government agencies currently do?
I'm saying that it's not possible to forecast this kind of virus without adequate testing _and_ very strong communication. Most countries are "OK" until they suddenly aren't.. then the peak of the issue comes 1-2 weeks /after/ they realise there is a problem.
>WHy is the 4-7 dag lag important with the twice-per-week meetings with regional authorities?
If people were presenting symptoms quickly then it would help map the spread of the virus and inform opinion on when the healthcare system will be overwhelmed so we can prepare.
> Going out with symptoms is an offence so I assume your PT was told to go home? [snip]
Nobody is taking this seriously. She thinks she just had a fever and a sore throat. I suggested it was possibly COVID-19 related to which she said "I doubt it very much" and that was the end of it.
> What are your thoughts on the Swedish Public Health Agency's information that masks are not needed?
That was a recommendation across the globe, but it's been contested and the current recommendation from most healthcare agencies is to use masks, with the empasis on tring to make your own and not to consume the medical grade ones : https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/21/scientists-...
> Just fyi, I'm also Swedish and live in Stockholm so also seeing all this first-hand. And I put a lot of faith into what the government and their agencies are saying so it's interesting to hear from someone who doesn't!
For context I'm not natively Swedish, I'm natively British, so maybe I don't share so much the culture of high trust in the government. But I'm also gravely dismayed by the sheer and flagrant violation of the recommendations even by Swedes.
The prevailing mindset is not only selfish it is based on the notion that "If I break the rules but nobody else does I'll be fine". It is very common for bars and restaurants to be full (like I previously mentioned) groups of people going shopping and hanging around in parks with the warm weather.
The virus has not killed so many in Skane yet.. but I do fear for the future.
"Closing borders, in my opinion, is ridiculous, because COVID-19 is in every European country now" has to be up there
Closing borders seems like a perfectly reasonable step for a great many countries.
Particularly those that are vastly more connected via land-based mass transit (often directly into cities that have higher populations than the entire country of Sweden)
