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Enter bayes theorem


Bayes' Theorem should be getting taught with quite some emphasis in high school, imo.


I would argue that Bayes Theorem is taught in high school basically conditional probabilities and inferences. The issue is that applied Bayes Theorem is not taught. What do you do with information given with the data at hand?


Bayesian updates should be taught in schools, at least at the most coarse-grained level. Not to let people calculate anything; almost nobody is going to need that in life anyway. But so that some authority (which a school is) tells people they're allowed and supposed to update their beliefs on evidence. That evidence drags belief more in one direction than the other. That 0 and 1 are not probabilities in real life. That being certain of something is a rare thing, that they should embrace being more or less sure. That this is not someone's random worldview, but there is a proper (and rather fundamental) mathematical formalism behind it, it's just impossible to apply it fully in real life, so we have to approximate it.




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