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Along these lines, I still think Marshall Brain is likely to be proved correct, he predicted automation would instead replace middle management, and then direct unskilled labor in his novel Manna[1].

1:http://marshallbrain.com/manna.htm



Manna is a very underrated story. And it's already happening to some degree: Uber/Lyft drivers don't have managers; they are being directed by a phone app.


Taxi apps don't replace middle managers, they replace dispatchers.


dispatchers are the middle managers.

but i'm skeptical; it would be more convincing if GP/GGP provided some of the rationale for why middle managers would be automated away rather than simply referencing a book.


Ha, to encourage more reading, naturally! But I'll bite, and flesh out the premise a little more - like the Uber example, in Manna the story begins with software being used to micromanage the employees in fast food joints, through their headsets. It tracks their locations, and walks them through the steps of doing any tasks it predicts will require attention wherever they happen to be - in the restroom? Does the trash need to be emptied y/n? If yes, step one, remove bag and tie closed... etc. Making robots capable of doing all those different tasks would be hard, but making a system to tell low-paid humans to do them is not so difficult.


ok, i'm still skeptical then. dystopian novels typically feature (overt or covert) coercion centrally because it's required to force people to do things they'd not naturally do (the dystopian stuff).

those kinds of jobs would have to be coercive in nature (desperation qualifies), and would be beyond the threshold of autonomy that most people will tolerate. most jobs, even those rigidly regulated, have enough latitude that workers can find some level of esteem in it, enough to create the intrinsic motivation to keep doing it.

people wouldn't tolerate such jobs without extreme coercion, implying nothing less than a collapse of our democratic republic to achieve.




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