The recent PG essay on thinking received a lot of comments about survivor bias.
It seems the value of survivor bias awareness is realizing the need to compare crashed planes to the survivors.
There's clearly potential for mismatched incentives when VCs are talking to potential founders, just like there's a mismatched incentive for armchair analysts to justify their inaction.
So, founders who went for it and failed enough to quit, what happened?
What was the actual point of failure?
I tried a pivot to a SaaS model but missed my window of opportunity as Shopify and a few others started out as SaaS only and had more traction. Also, Magento commerce popped out of nowhere as a really good free, open source cart that made it difficult to continue to sell higher priced stand alone licenses.
Two actual points of failure: 1) had to start letting employees go because not enough income and 2) had to fire myself because not enough income.
In the end, I was able to license the technology to a few companies in a royalty deal and sell some other parts. Not a complete failure and I learned tons from the experience.
Business lessons learned:
* My sales/revenue strategy was weak, i was depending on my channel to sell but they were only getting me a one time license purchase while they got the recurring hosting revenue. * Selling to small and medium sized businesses is almost as much work as selling into Enterprises and the pay off is much smaller. I'd recommend targeting enterprises or consumes rather than mid-market. Consumer has scale, Enterprises have cash. * The better mousetrap doesn't always win. I had much better quality software than some competitors but they had momentum and staff that was already familiar with their product. If you're going to be the "better" option, be 10x better. * Timing is critical. Some opportunities are about being in the right place at the right time. A few years too early or too late can sink an idea. Be prepared to scale as fast as possible when you see things working.