Being wrong most of the time in this cases is normal. Speculation is based in the limited set of data available at a given point. As the data slowly improves, the hypothesis will be replaced by better explanations. Is an iterative process.
If we see for example an old fainted abdominal scar, without more additional data, the correct explanation would be to assume that it was made (or closed) by a surgeon. This will be the correct explanation in, lets say, 80% of the real cases. An attack or an accident would be the next logical candidates. People deliberately shooting themselves in the belly are really rare events so we should not choose this explanation in the first iterations without discarding the more probable candidates first.
After discarding the other options, a case of mental issues and anorexia, maybe followed by eating too much [1] in a too fragile body would explain it
[1] despite his extreme condition, he was eating and drinking, as the autopsy reveals.
... but after discarding the other options, there is still another remaining candidate that links together and explains practically all little strange details that seemed out of place in this history, and this candidate is prostate cancer.
If we see for example an old fainted abdominal scar, without more additional data, the correct explanation would be to assume that it was made (or closed) by a surgeon. This will be the correct explanation in, lets say, 80% of the real cases. An attack or an accident would be the next logical candidates. People deliberately shooting themselves in the belly are really rare events so we should not choose this explanation in the first iterations without discarding the more probable candidates first.
After discarding the other options, a case of mental issues and anorexia, maybe followed by eating too much [1] in a too fragile body would explain it
[1] despite his extreme condition, he was eating and drinking, as the autopsy reveals.
... but after discarding the other options, there is still another remaining candidate that links together and explains practically all little strange details that seemed out of place in this history, and this candidate is prostate cancer.