I don't think so. Either Musk will change Starlink to comply with the great firewall (giving starlink access to a market of over a billion people), or China will ban Starlink terminals (which would be sort of like the current situation- Chinese citizens can get around the firewall with a VPN, but doing so is illegal)

Most likely not. At minimum China will require the local regulations to be observed if SpaceX wants to sell Starlink services to Chinese citizens. Also, currently ground-based stations are required so the filtering could be implemented there.

No. Starlink relies on base stations which would need to be located within a couple of hundred of kilometres of the customer. It also relies on RF licenses which it needs to receive from every country in which it operates.