We do know that. We know how much phased array costs, and many experts in that area have said so. Shotwell and musk both have said getting the terminal cost down is their biggest challenge. They wouldn't say that if it was $500.
No, they are commodity and we know how much they cost. SpaceX hasn't magically solved somehow decreasing the price of components they don't even make. They are paying over $1000 for a terminal.
Sure! You mean every phased array that's ever been built? I suppose you have the BOM for the starlink terminal that spacex themselves have said is too expensive? I guess the fact that musk is behind it means the cost is magic and you can discount all prior technology, right?
"DaveMosher reports @SpaceX has contracted @ST_World already "a few years ago" to build 1m #Starlink user terminals at $2400/pc, hence current hardware subsidy for beta testers is $1900. Article suggests, SpaceX may be paying $2.4 billion for the order.
https://t.co/jak0hKQBGn"
So the current estimate published in business insider means you are about four times off based on the contract with ST, who we now know builds the chips inside of it. Please show your sources of a $500 phased array terminal.
So we have $2.4 billion, but we don't know what this includes. This is likely for all the development, setting up the production system and so on. It could include a number of things.
To just take that number an convert it unit cost like that doesn't make sense. SpaceX will need many more then just 1M terminals, what matters is the marginal cost per terminal.
And if these numbers are accurate is also questionable.
