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Frankly, since we only have ourselves to sample, we have no idea how large the survivorship bias is. It doesn't matter if there's googol of galaxies or just one galaxy, we have zero direct information on how easily life arises. Putting it another way, observing a googol of galaxies ought to pretty much not at all increase our confidence that other life exists, like how observing a 200% increase in a speed doesn't tell you anything when you don't know what the absolute speed was to start with.


You're right in regards to sample size.

However, one thing this argument often ignores is that the Earth is 4.5 billion years old. Life is 3.5 billion years old. The Earth was hot molten rock up until about 20 million years before life began.

So we went from Zero to Life in 20 million.

Once created it was so successful that it took over nearly every part of the Earth in a multitude of evolving forms.

It seems improbable life makes it's appearance so improbably early on Earth that perhaps the only explanation is that life isn't so improbable after all. Perhaps it's even highly likely give the physics of the universe.


This is true, but I don't find it persuasive.

We know that simple chemistry plus lots of energy can create more complicated chemistry. We have evidence that some protein molecules can be self-replicating under the right conditions.

Given billions of parallel experiments over billions of years, I think it is vanishingly unlikely that exactly one has progressed to the point we would recognize as self-organizing.

But that's faith, not proof. I'll defend it as the most reasonable and non-exceptional version of the story, but I won't claim it as absolute truth.




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