I get what you mean about certain aspects, but I would not describe the process of buying a car in that way.

I don't know what you mean. I don't think I said much about the hassle of buying a car: I agree with you on that. When I say "service is the key" I mean mechanically servicing the car, not customer service.

I also wouldn't contradict you on the test drive idea, but that's almost exactly how dealerships do it already. Unless you really insist on driving the exact car you're buying, they are going to direct you towards the demo car reserved for that purpose.

Repair shops: Yes they can exist outside of dealerships, but manufacturers can't build their own service centers without bankrupting the dealerships, which is how they get sales in the first place. Dealerships do occasionally flip to another manufacturer if the local market for their cars is bad, and they would do that in a heart beat if the manufacturer opened its own independent service center nearby.

I completely agree that better models for all of this could exist, but, as you said, the intertwining factors are a real rats nest. This is why I'm extremely skeptical when someone claims everything will be different in 20 years. Breaking this rats nest requires some type of black swan event. By definition those are mostly unforeseeable, and I don't see anything right now to change things. Carvana and those like it focus on used cars, which have always been much more decoupled from the manufacturer/dealership relationship already.

As a final side note, you can avoid the 4-hour dealership visit pretty easily these days: My wife just needed a new car, and we worked with their online sales person via email, casually going back & forth 2 or 3 times over the course of a discussing options and hammering out the details. Trade-in value was determined by giving them the VIN # and pictures of the car. When we went in to pick up the car, all we had to do was review the details. There was a little bit of wait for the insurance company to put the car on our policy (they can't do that until the transaction is official) and for the finance officer to be available, after which we reviewed the paper work, signed, and were done. The whole process took under an hour.

I'm not a frequent new car buyer. The last two times I bought a car (over the past 5 years) we had agreed on a specific car, had cash in hand, and did not have a trade-in to negotiate. The wait wasn't over "coming to a deal" or anything. It just seemed like bureaucratic paperwork process that would normally be built into the haggling; waiting on tags, title, insurance or some other seemingly made up step. Late in the paperwork process there were upsells already added on to the car.

I have zero idea what the average new car buyer is, but I feel like most will drive a bit to find the specific car they want but they want servicing to be nearby. I get that coupling financing, trade-in, test driving and purchasing is good for the customer. I also don't see things changing in the next 20 years, but black swan events do happen. Every decade or two someone, like Tesla, tries to shake things up and other events like auto bailouts or cash-for-clunkers has potential to disrupt things. For example, I wouldn't be surprised if EV adoption erodes dealership service center margins. I know cars.com was trying before Carvana to side-step the dealer process and Carmax seems to have found success--like you said, all eventually settled on used cars.

I certainly do. I thought this was the norm?

Regarding your comment on test drives: Not in my experience, though it may vary between dealerships and also possibly luxury class. Side note: a good part of my knowledge comes from my father who, when he fell on hard times losing a much better job, could only find a job selling cars. (He wasn't good at it: He was blunt & honest, and while not afraid of pushing an upsell, he wouldn't use deceptive tactics.)

For test drives, luxury car dealerships or high end models at normal dealerships will get you an easy test drive in the exact car you're buying. For a "normal" cars they'd prefer or insist on their dedicated car for that purpose. Part of the reason some dealerships do this is because it's they will use a model with the highest level of options for that model-- all of the amenities. It makes the upsell easier when a customer realizes that some of the nice things they experienced in the test drive aren't included in the "trim" they want.

A customer can insist, but the way they pack cars into their lots it can take a little while for someone to maneuver cars so the one you want can be brought out for a test drive. The only time I test drove the exact car I was buying was when it was the only one on the lot with a specific requirement: manual transmission. Otherwise I drove what are called "demo cars". If you search that out, it's a common thing: Dealerships designate specific cars for test drives, which are also occasionally used by sales folks to get them familiar with the cars, and also as loaner cars to customers that need to leave their own to be serviced. You can usually get a slightly better deal on demo cars: Technically they can still be sold legally as "new" but can have up to a few thousand miles on them.

As I said though, it could vary by dealership, but it will especially vary by how busy it is when you visit: Weekends are when sales folks really make their money, and unless you're really ready to buy right then, they will try not to take the time even for the test drive unless things are slow: if they establish that you might not be ready to buy that their goal is to spend the smallest time possible that still connects you to them if you decide to buy later, but otherwise lets them move on to a customer who is really ready to buy, because: They mostly need to sell 2-3 cars on the weekend, and 1-2 cars over the course of the rest of the week to meet the lower end quota marks ~12 cars/month where small bonuses start to kick in, which is also where most salesmen land each month.

Also, despite cars being a large purchase, sales folks are paid like shit compared to the sticker price, have to work extremely long hours, and have no such thing as true paid vacation or sick days because if they take a week off, they're giving up 25% of their pay for that month. More, if it means they fall a car or two short of a bonus tier. $100-$200/car is around average for entry to mid-range cars, with a small % earned on upsells like an extended warranty and the interest earned on the loan. IIRC, that commission is about 5%: $1k for an extended warranty and $2k interest over the lifetime of the loan gets them an extra $150, but most people don't get the warranty extension and frequent 0% to 2% financing deals for people with strong credit make those extras few & far between. Salary breaks down along these lines:

1) ~50-60 hour work weeks with a pre-commission "salary" around $1000/month.

2) ~12 cars/month averaging $200/car after upsells = $2400

3) $500 bonus for hitting the minimum quota

4) $1000 + $2400 +500 = $3900/month = ~$45000/year for a job with low benefits, variable uncertain pay from month to month, zero fully paid time off, and long hours.

Again, this is for a typical dealership like honda/chevy/toyota etc. Higher-end luxury cars are very different. They have to cater to more demanding buyers. Those dealerships generally only hire sales folks with strong established track records with high sales rates. Salaries there can be $75k to $100k. I have a family member that was able to start at that level due to a friendship connection, did very well, and moved up to ultra luxury & sports cars and began earning ~$200k/year. That, however, it the top 1% of car sales.... maybe even less. Not that many people buy >= ~$150,000 cars. But when they do, the margins are higher, buyers often want a variety of upsell amenities, and even low-interest financing results in a lot more profit on the back end: $1500 commission/car plus $600 on the back end for financing @ 10 cars/month = $200k/year.