I'll add in a vote for the UK Met Office here too (particularly for the UK). AROME is a high resolution 'nested' model, where the region of interest is simulated at a higher resolution that the (often global) driving model. Similar to ICON-D2 (Germany [0])and UKV (UK [1]). These will typically produce a better downscale of the forecast to a local area.
Their utility depends a bit on what is causing the uncertainty in the forecast though. For the mid-latitutdes, a lot of the uncertainty comes from timing the arrival of a weather system. In these cases, the high resolution simulation doesn't help you, as it just incorporates the uncertainties of the lower resolution driving model.
The ensemble simulations that the weather servies perform will help you there, ECMWF has a really nice meteogram for individual locations [2].
Their utility depends a bit on what is causing the uncertainty in the forecast though. For the mid-latitutdes, a lot of the uncertainty comes from timing the arrival of a weather system. In these cases, the high resolution simulation doesn't help you, as it just incorporates the uncertainties of the lower resolution driving model.
The ensemble simulations that the weather servies perform will help you there, ECMWF has a really nice meteogram for individual locations [2].
[0] - https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/nwp_forecast_data/nwp_fore...
[1] - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-sys...
[2] - https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/openchart...