This chart tells you most of what you need to know.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI

This shows the insane increase in personal income over the course of the pandemic.

Many made more money on enhanced UI benefits than in their line of work. This is a known fact.

People in this situation have more propensity to spend the marginal dollar than higher income earners. Spending as a percentage of income inversely trends with level of income.

It's true that some percentage of retail spending is spending shifted from other categories, but given personal income data, I doubt that's the primary cause.

Also keep in mind, there was mortgage forbearance, rent forgiveness, and student loan moratorium (which is still ongoing I believe).

Those factors don't show up in income, but will shift expenses from loan interest to goods most likely.

I do know something else not specified by the chart.

Everyone's been stuck at home and purchasing consumer items that would usually be bought in bulk and supplied by employers, restaurants, etc.

Claiming it's government spending as the cause and not covid as the cause seems silly

The ability to spend is constrained by aggregate income and available credit in society.

Shifts in spending from services to goods can only alter consumption patterns so much.

Here is the Fed data on services spending: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCESV

As you can see, services spending is equivalent to 2019 levels today, while goods spending is 20% higher.

Consider the level of fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus through lower rates (cheaper credit), and expense reduction (moratoriums, forbearance).

The sheer magnitude of demand stimulation is frankly obvious, even without digging into the data. Of course, the data backs up this theory as well.

Saying it's "covid" isn't saying anything at all. You have to quantify what you're suggesting. What is the mechanism that can explain persistently higher goods spending? The data doesn't bear out substitution as the primary mechanism, either way.

There’s a backlog of savings from limited service spending that is being worked through right now.

Do you disagree that aggregate personal income was massively enhanced through stimulus spending? The facts show this.

You seem very intent on not considering that fact when it's the most obvious factor by a wide margin, with all of the data supporting it.

Are you aware of the size of federal deficit spending in 2020/2021? The level of monetary policy easing leading to more credit availability to consumers?

It's intellectually dishonest to attribute elevated retail sales solely, or even primarily to the substitution effect

You can see here that the trend line for imports is consistent for the past 4 years: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports

So you could say that it’s the deficit (e.g. the big tax cut from 4 years ago) that precipitated to this.

My point is that “stimulus equals problems at the ports” is likely an overly simplistic answer.

How much upshifting in jobs has occurred?

Before the pandemic we talked about unfilled jobs looking for computer programmers and other higher paid positions. How many people moved from 'social' jobs to ones that required more skills but pay more?

You mean all those underemployed software engineers and all the trained programmers forced to wait tables because they couldn’t get a programming job?

That is not how I remember the world in 2019.

You took that the wrong way. Software engineers moved up. I've gotten 2 promotions since the pandemic started. I'm talking about people shifting industries in to ones that have been short staffed, like programming, and leaving the crap jobs behind.

Stimulus is a small part. The 6 Trillion dollar deficit spending over the last two years increases disposable income whether it consists of checks being mailed out to households or Pfizer or Boeing. It ends up in people's pockets and is not matched by a corresponding increase in taxes.

https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/defic...