You think they'd remote work in their rented million dollar shed in SF? Or shell out a debilitating mortgage for 20 years just to stick around bay area?
I think you’re misunderstanding the transient nature.
There are always people coming in and out, and while that growth rate of new people has slowed down bit (it’s still positive) and the rate of people leaving temporarily went up, it will pick back up as companies return to the office.
I don’t think it’s for the reasons you suggest. A lot of the influx is young people, and there isn’t a compelling reason to move somewhere if you’re not going to make friends or establish social groups due to WFH, or are hesitant because of crime or safety or hygiene.
Our new grad offers, for example, have SF relocation in Q2 2022.
If the mortgages are perpetually ultra expensive, then it’s not a bad place to park your money.
I don’t know of any tech workers living in shacks in SF. I know people paying an extra 1-1.5k to live in 1bdrms vs. outside of SF/NY. If you keep a lower budget, you’ll probably end up in interesting situations in shared housing, which can get pretty shitty.
Lots of anecdotes, but when you look at the people who stay in SF you see people working at big companies and people doing the serial startup think. Survivor bias considered, these peoples’ resources have trended toward compounding over time and growing faster than other places.
SF is hot for startups, and even if those companies move out once they’re large, new companies are filling the gaps continuously. The high equity culture associated with that sees folks without a lot of cash, but that’s been changing the last several years, too as competition for hiring has gone way up.
2 million dollars for a shitty house is ridiculous. But it doesn’t really matter if you’re making 5 million every 10 years. Local banks will even get creative and lend against illiquid stock options now, sometimes non-recourse.
