1. I think the author forgot the term "Anomaly Detection" and is trying to reinvent it. Also, Anomaly or "Sensing something is wrong" is one of the most basic human instinct.
2. >By this time they were 100% cultists, so they all consulted the rock and said “No, the volcano is not erupting”. The sulfur started to smell different, and the Queen asked “Are you sure?”
Even the queen deciphered that something is wrong without any volcano knowledge. The author itself is providing an example of human instinct without acknowledging it,
3. The author assumes all guards as the same when in fact they all are different individuals. Sure most of them might be lousy at their jobs but there will be some who understand how rare the "robbery event" is and so will still look when there's sound.
4. The examples suffer from cold start problem. What if robbery happens the first month of a new guard. Will he still be asleep? If not, then Utility (hiring a guard in all cases) > Utility (not hiring a guard).
5. As another commentor mentioned that the value of having a security guard visible so that 99% of the robbers who might conceivably want to rob decides to go someplace else instead.
6. Contrarionism is seen as a virtue by certain people hence "I don't like this generation's music" and "Popular thing bad" phenomenon. Also, they make sure to be as loud as possible whenever their contradiction is right. This helps humanity in mentally modelling rare events.
All in all, the author is underestimating the capabilities of humans and humanity.
2. >By this time they were 100% cultists, so they all consulted the rock and said “No, the volcano is not erupting”. The sulfur started to smell different, and the Queen asked “Are you sure?”
Even the queen deciphered that something is wrong without any volcano knowledge. The author itself is providing an example of human instinct without acknowledging it,
3. The author assumes all guards as the same when in fact they all are different individuals. Sure most of them might be lousy at their jobs but there will be some who understand how rare the "robbery event" is and so will still look when there's sound.
4. The examples suffer from cold start problem. What if robbery happens the first month of a new guard. Will he still be asleep? If not, then Utility (hiring a guard in all cases) > Utility (not hiring a guard).
5. As another commentor mentioned that the value of having a security guard visible so that 99% of the robbers who might conceivably want to rob decides to go someplace else instead.
6. Contrarionism is seen as a virtue by certain people hence "I don't like this generation's music" and "Popular thing bad" phenomenon. Also, they make sure to be as loud as possible whenever their contradiction is right. This helps humanity in mentally modelling rare events.
All in all, the author is underestimating the capabilities of humans and humanity.