Does he really not understand how Brier scores work? If you are unable to distinguish between more risky and non-risky instances (e.g. specify when it's only 99% not happening, vs. usually when it's 99.99% not happening) then of course you aren't adding any value above and beyond the heuristic.
Additionally, getting the base rate right is important when considering lifetime risk and the costs vs. benefits of taking action or engaging in further screening - e.g. missing two or three cancer patients might be worth the benefits of not subjecting large numbers of patients to secondary screening.
Additionally, getting the base rate right is important when considering lifetime risk and the costs vs. benefits of taking action or engaging in further screening - e.g. missing two or three cancer patients might be worth the benefits of not subjecting large numbers of patients to secondary screening.