Upton has lately stated that the chance of a risc-v board before 2030 is around 10%. Prior to the Nvidia ARM deal falling apart he had given it a 20% chance. The drop is because the threat of their supplier being their competitor has gone away. According to Upton the main reason for such a low chance of risc-v replacing arm for the Pi is the lack of licensable risc-v cores which come near meeting the price performance ratio of the current arm cores used in the Pi4.