Here's what Goldman told me in their newsletter:

The meltdown in cryptocurrencies is raising alarm about the future of digital assets — or is it?

Fears over soaring prices and slowing economic growth have sent investors fleeing from risk assets, notably cryptocurrencies. In the latest Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Mathew McDermott, global head of digital assets at Goldman Sachs, explains the drivers, evolution and the outlook for crypto assets and the broader digital assets ecosystem.

Recent volatility underscores that crypto assets are still an emerging asset class with a large number of retail participants, McDermott explains to Exchanges host Allison Nathan of Goldman Sachs Research. “The move so far has been correlated to the broader macro market moves,” notes McDermott, who points out that nearly every asset class with discounted cash flows has been hard hit by inflationary pressures.

Blockchain, crypto and digital currencies are gaining broader acceptance among investors, companies and institutions. “Maturity across both the market participants and the infrastructure has given not only confidence to many different institutional sectors, but also has enabled many more traditional traders to really look forward in how they trade this marketplace because of this maturity in the product suite,” McDermott says.

Venture capital investments in digital assets are surging. While valuations are pretty high, there continues to be “high levels of interest because people continue to see exponential growth opportunities and are keen to deploy that capital,” says McDermott. “I think valuations have got a little out of kilter, so perhaps we'll see some more sensible valuations in terms of investment opportunities, too.”

The thinking behind it is based on the halving of rewards and the stock to flow model. https://bitblogger.org/demystifying-bitcoins-remarkably-accu...

If you follow that reason then it's rational that there are crashes after peaks (cashing out), and it's still rational that it will keep rising to a point that it reaches its true value (whatever that is).

The peaks and troughs will flatten out as that happens.

Could well all be wrong. But so far that seems to be the pattern.

> it's still rational that it will keep rising to a point that it reaches its true value (whatever that is)

Don't ignore the possibility that its "true value" is (or becomes) zero.

There are still plenty of people who enjoy betting providing a bottom layer and whales are happy to buy low and sell high, so they have an incentive to ride trends. There is a lot of pumping going on in private telegram chats at multiple levels of wealth.

I guess it will crash to zero when governments start rolling out their own and declaring illegal all the other cryptocurrencies.

Past performance is indicative of future results except for the purposes of liability punting, which is a super convenient capability of apocryphal disclaimers