You seem to be under the impression that developing palatable narratives for the less fortunate is an objective. Says who? Just because it doesn’t sound fair, that doesn’t mean we can ignore it’s existence. More harmful, we can’t coddle people into believing everyone is very much capable of success and it’s an equal playing field. It’s not.

Entropy and randomness exists. Agency exists. People don’t generally attribute success to solely one or the other. However, think about this: if the objective function is $10MM net worth, and there are two variables, luck & agency, and each variable has a threshold one must exceed before contributing to the objective function, it’s easy to see that randomness (luck) will contribute to your networth, more so than grokking (agency) it.

In other words, a small amount of luck has a larger effect than a small amount of agency. But, if small amount of luck translated to $10MM net worth, isn’t that lucky by definition? Conversely, if a small amount of agency translated to $10MM net worth, what does that mean? Can you say that it was all your efforts that solely got you to $10MM net worth?

Nobody is saying it’s all one or the other. One you can control, so that is where it’s useful to focus your attention.

It’s not a simple made up equation with two variables and an outcome. It’s an iterative game you play over and over again throughout your life.

It's not just luck, Sam Altman mentions being born lucky. This is more related to topics about family socioeconomic class and other factors, which is important to acknowledge because maybe instead of telling people simply to work hard or have a good mindset, we should be pushing to level the playing field.

There will never be a level playing field. People are different. “Pushing to level the playing field” is just doublespeak for authoritarianism.

Just a quick question, who will be in charge of “leveling the playing field”? Who gets to choose what criteria determines whether it’s level or not? Do you think they might have some advantage? Will it be a level field for them?

Check out the Nordic countries for an example of an attempt to level the playing field. They're not perfect, certainly not authoritarian and have a good social mobility.

These are all hard questions but this is a different debate entirely. I was explaining why acknowledging birth privilege is not the same as just telling people "sorry you weren't lucky, too bad". For the people that believe in leveling the playing field, actual social change can be just as important (if not more) as the mindset and hard work touted by successful people.

> "this endless need to prostrate yourself and attribute everything to luck is silly and harmful"

...you're saying it in your post that everyone is saying it.

True, people are saying it’s nothing but luck, which was my point. It is discouraging and unhelpful to relentlessly best people over the head with nonsense like that, which happens in every post like this.

Is it nonsense when it is backed by studies linked above, experiences shared by others here, and those of our own?

I’ve made plenty of money advising startup entrepreneurs on IP law, incorporation, and tax strategy. That means I have visibility into founders’ most sensitive personal financial information and I can count on my hands how many founders I’ve met who don’t come from financially well-off backgrounds.

That may be a function of the fact that my services are expensive and only those who are well-resourced would seek me out… but truth be told if they can’t afford me they probably couldn’t afford to take the kinds of risks necessary for the success defined in this article.

I say this as someone who was “born lucky” too. If my parents weren’t both professionals with money to invest in my education and a network for me to tap when I started my firm, all the hard work in the world couldn’t guarantee I’d be where I am. And I don’t even consider myself that successful compared to others I know.

The two variables aren’t independent though. Your agency is affected by your own beliefs about luck. Similarly, luck is created by choices.

Trying to quantify these things is a fools errand and I would argue tilts towards social justice narratives. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I do believe it is counter productive for individuals who want to be successful. Everyone has advantages and disadvantages, but the common thread with successful people is a bias for action and not getting lost daydreaming and pontificating.