What's the current prognosis for supply chains returning to stability?
The last I heard, the main culprits were (a) COVID shutting down Chinese factories; (b) cargo-ship related shipping delays; (c) COVID-related demand for work-from-home electronics; and (d) follow-on problems caused by hoarding.
My impression was that (a, b, c) are largely behind us now. Does that mean we just need to give things a little time?
I would add e) - if the whole western economy depends on a single country as a supplier, and this country wants to become the world leader, then it is in the interest of the said country to make as much economic problems for west as possible, but not so much that the countries would again develop local supply or import from elsewhere. Excuses a), b), c) and d) are very handy for this and allow the said country to walk the fine line. It helps if the country is tightly run. Genius and scary to watch.
What do they observe, and how do you think this will help?
Note that I don't blame the unnamed country, they would be stupid not to bank on the fact that they are the major / only producer. The trouble lies with our shortsighted greed where it is more important to save money on costs than to manage risks (IP theft, depending on a single entity). We'll see, hope (but doubt) I'm wrong.
Of course it does, since you developed it to fit the data. Try making a prediction about things you don't know yet instead of creating a hypothesis for observed data, which is easy to make fit.
Humans are great at developing arbitrary stories for observed data, nut nearly as good at making predictions (other than linear extensions of currently observable trends).
If your theory only "predicts" the data you used to develop it it's just a story.
I don’t think a or b have eased up much. Zero-covid means that ports in China can still lock up on a moment’s notice; Shanghai had a total lockdown for months, and is China’s largest port.
I'm an EE and I do a lot of my own supply chain management. Some suppliers are saying 2024 while others are refusing to answer the question at all. Not encouraging.
The last I heard, the main culprits were (a) COVID shutting down Chinese factories; (b) cargo-ship related shipping delays; (c) COVID-related demand for work-from-home electronics; and (d) follow-on problems caused by hoarding.
My impression was that (a, b, c) are largely behind us now. Does that mean we just need to give things a little time?
[Edited for clearer wording.]