"Laws addressing highly unlikely events often don't take into account other effects."
Agree 100%, but I'm not convinced you could call such events "highly unlikely". I don't have enough data to say.
I don't have data, either. But I do recall the debates about making seatbelts the law. The talk was always about whether one was safer being thrown from a car than staying in the car. I never heard mention about being thrown from a car causing another accident.
After the law passed, I heard many people say they wouldn't wear the belt out of fear of being trapped in a burning car.
It's just that these discussions have been completely forgotten since, and the assumption is that seatbelts are always better.
I wear a seatbelt because the odds are better. I'm aware there are cases where it isn't.