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Europe is not bombed by Russia and there is no 'major war' disrupting the continent.

There is very localised war in Ukraine, which objective impact so far only concerns what Ukraine exports, mostly wheat at this point.



> mostly wheat at this point

Wheat and a few million people who had to leave their country, but yeah, wheat...

It obviously is a major crisis in Europe and has many ramifications, if all your neighbours mysteriously die in the same week it won't affect you personally but you surely will feel down or threatened. If it was just about wheat nobody would care, Ukrainian wheat isn't even exported to EU countries


> It obviously is a major crisis in Europe and has many ramifications, if all your neighbours mysteriously die in the same week it won't affect you personally but you surely will feel down or threatened.

This premise relies on a mysterious, unknown cause though. It's more like your neighbors fighting your other neighbors.


See how NYC would do if NY State bombs New Jersey.


It’s more like how NYC would do if Mexico bombed the Dominican Republic.


Not even close to resembling the current situation.


Two things on this:

People left early in the war because of panic and because Russia was trying to invade the while of Ukraine. But if we look at the situation now, arguably there is no reason to have refugees outside of Ukraine.

Second thing is that, in any case, the Ukrainian refugees are not disruptive at continent level, though they might be in specific areas near Ukraine.

Of course a war, any war, is disruptive and horrible for the people involved. But we're looking at the macro impact on Europe here.


> People left early in the war because of panic and because Russia was trying to invade the while of Ukraine. But if we look at the situation now, arguably there is no reason to have refugees outside of Ukraine.

Huh? Until Feb you might have said this if you did not believe the intelligence reports on an invasion being prepared, but now when they are actually deeper in Ukranian soil, and scratched near Kiev itself, are you to say they won't try again?


It also has impacted what Russia exports. Some Russian exports are rather important to much of the EU.


It's quite different.

The war does not intrinsically disrupt Russian exports, including gas, to Europe.

Europe has made decisions based on various considerations and those decisions have resulted in disruption.

I think it's useful to sort consequences we're seeing depending on the level of control or leeway parties have on them.




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