We’re confusing “intellectual” with “media”. That ship sailed long ago. Coordinated media narratives are probably the most banal, boring, ham-handed and anti-intellectual sources of thought in this country. Periodically they’re all pulling in the same direction without a critical contrary thought. It doesn’t prove the opposite but at the very least it’s a tell to be extra skeptical of the narrative you’re getting fed.
Lack of a plausible Russian motive? That's a terrible hot take.
- German gas reserves are over 90%. Russia wanted to bet on economic blackmail and got beat. How to save face when you're beat? An anonymous scapegoat does nicely.
- Russia is having a hell of a time with the Reserve call-ups. Protests of the type previously thought impossible. People openly defying Moscow in word and deed. How do you galvanize a people? Make them feel like they're under attack.
- Putin is aging and is reportedly in poor health. He may have a successor within the next couple of years. That successor may feel the need to distance himself from an invasion that, by most accounts, has gone poorly for Russia. Taking one form of economic concessions off the table hampers future efforts at undoing Putin's legacy.
Bottom line: any smart Russian autocrat looking to spin a narrative about Russian power through oil, galvanize a reluctant people, and preemptively destroy a bargaining chip that could be used to destroy his legacy, would almost certainly consider destroying NordStream2. There is motive, means, opportunity, and circumstantial evidence. Russia did it.
