No, these are your assumptions made through fearmongering and looking away from what is actually happening. Women are not fragile flowers being super selective with strangers out of security. They are increasingly hooking up with strangers compared to before, and they specifically select men in populations which are more likely to have psychopaths or men with dark intentions. Your average woman has plenty of suitors and friends able to set her up with dates, and she chooses not to.
The entire notion falls flat the moment you look at the actions of women and men as a whole, and take a moment to remember what ideals 80s and 90s coming-of-age movies showed.
That's not the point. If one cites 'yeah it's because women are responding accordingly', they are ignorant to the fact women are A; not responding in accordance to the idea 'don't trust strangers', B; much safer than before and C; independent individuals capable of making their own decisions.
Whether the statistics would be lower if women trusted strangers less doesn't matter. It's what they choose, despite being educated on the matter since youth, and having plenty of options available in general.
I don't get the XKCD analogy. Are you inferring that women who are aware that the actual statistics say that they will be murdered by a loved one are more likely to be killed by a stranger?
The implication is that the statistics are what they are under the condition that women take the precautions that they do.
In other words, the 1/X statistic is conditioned on the average person's precautions (like not walking outside in a lightning storm), and by not applying on those precautions, you're using the statistic outside of the distribution that it applies to.
The analogy is about an aggregation error when using statistics. While the statistic is true it is not accounting for the environment one is in (it has aggregated all environments). Of course there's a big difference asking a girl on a first date on a hike in the woods vs meeting at Starbucks. (A lot of statistical paradoxes are because of aggregation errors. Conditional estimation matters a lot)
It's also a risk/reward thing though. Putting an obstacle to the first date is a great filter to remove people who aren't particularly interested or who would have incompatible lifestyle. From this respect a hike might be far preferably to Starbucks.
While I don't think you're wrong, I think the issue with the hike is being missed. It is a more dangerous situation meeting someone alone in the wilderness (exaggerating a bit) vs meeting them in a very public place that has cameras. That was the intended note.
But I think there are also some complications you're missing. These lifestyles matches can be a form of luck. Maybe you're having a busy week. You're probably paying attention to the app less because of course you will. On the other hand if you're being set up by a friend then that friend can be like "hey, they're busy this week but let's set you up next" and there is more empathy involved.
A major problem with dating apps is that they are trying to be that friend that sets you up but they are doing a really terrible job at replicating what that friend is able to actually do.
The entire notion falls flat the moment you look at the actions of women and men as a whole, and take a moment to remember what ideals 80s and 90s coming-of-age movies showed.