I don’t know that the prices
during the DCA period are trending upwards, I have no information about short term fluctuations other than they exist.
I have no reason to believe that over the relatively short period of DCA that there is specific upside or downside coming along immediately, but I know that there is noise in the pricing. The rising trend I’m betting on is further down the line and very slow.
You’re adding assumptions that support your view, rather than addressing the problem as stated.
The only thing we know is that we're choosing an asset which we believe will trend upwards.
Over the relatively short period of DCA, it will trend upwards.
If you're saying you know that the rising trend won't begin until a future date, then that's an assumption you're adding, and it probably indicates you should wait until the rising trend begins until increasing.
> Over the relatively short period of DCA, it will trend upwards.
But this is an assumption!
> If you're saying you know that the rising trend won't begin until a future date, then that's an assumption you're adding
I'm saying I have no idea what's going to happen during the DCA period.
I think at this point its safe to say your view that DCA doesn't work to denoise a signal is predicated on assumptions about what the price trend is doing over the DCA timescale. If the stock is trending up over that period, then you're likely better off buying now regardless of local fluctuation. OK!
I have no reason to believe that over the relatively short period of DCA that there is specific upside or downside coming along immediately, but I know that there is noise in the pricing. The rising trend I’m betting on is further down the line and very slow.
You’re adding assumptions that support your view, rather than addressing the problem as stated.