I’ve been trying to play through the scenario in my head. At least in terms of software developers being replaced by AI, I think we’re going to first see AI doing work in parallel or under monitor by humans. Basically, Google will take AI and send it off to do work that they lack the staff to do. Now, on the other hand, they could also temporally play it out where first they feign an inability to staff people due to finances so there are layoffs/terminations, and then maybe a quarter later they replace those people with low cost AI compute time that is orders of magnitude more productive.
In any case, AI disrupting people’s ability to feed, shelter, and clothe themselves is sure to trigger a pretty brutal and hostile response, which would be grounds for legislation and perhaps a class war.
The weird part is that if the potential of AI is truly orders of magnitude expansion beyond what we already have, then the longterm surely has room for a tiny little mankind fief. But, in order to get to the long term our hyper-competitive technocratic overlords may strangle out part of or all of the rest of us while justifying accelerating through the near-term window to achieve AI-dominance.
I’ve been trying to play through the scenario in my head. At least in terms of software developers being replaced by AI, I think we’re going to first see AI doing work in parallel or under monitor by humans. Basically, Google will take AI and send it off to do work that they lack the staff to do. Now, on the other hand, they could also temporally play it out where first they feign an inability to staff people due to finances so there are layoffs/terminations, and then maybe a quarter later they replace those people with low cost AI compute time that is orders of magnitude more productive.
In any case, AI disrupting people’s ability to feed, shelter, and clothe themselves is sure to trigger a pretty brutal and hostile response, which would be grounds for legislation and perhaps a class war.
The weird part is that if the potential of AI is truly orders of magnitude expansion beyond what we already have, then the longterm surely has room for a tiny little mankind fief. But, in order to get to the long term our hyper-competitive technocratic overlords may strangle out part of or all of the rest of us while justifying accelerating through the near-term window to achieve AI-dominance.