The options grant appraisal for startup employees seems very optimistic - 70% it's worth nothing. 25% payout is equivalent to all the backpay you would have gotten if you had worked at a big tech co. instead. 4% life changing money but not the richest person you know. 1% you are the richest person you know.

Was this the generally the way people thought about it back then? I remember seeing fairly pessimistic valuations around 2013 though, and I see it more like 10-15% chance of big tech salary equivalent, and 1-2% for life changing.