What is your justification for these estimates? I've been trying to pay attention to what various experts think (I'm not one) and it seems like far from a foregone conclusion that this will be the case, and it might not even be the case that scaling up produces the same outsized benefits we've seen so far.
François Chollet for example seems like someone who is pretty in the know about current SOTA and is not nearly as optimistic best I can tell.
> But at the same time they absolutely have to learn how to use the new AI tools. It will be critical to stay competitively productive as an adult or just to be able to fit in. There will be important new tools every few months or years.
Definitely agree here.
> Where this is really headed in my opinion is by the 2040s high bandwidth brain computer interfaces that tightly integrate cognition with advanced AI systems (2-10 X smarter than humans) start to become commonplace.
My gut feeling is this is pretty insane and unlikely to be the case but I suppose insane things have happened before.
Like I said, my website can already do it to some degree for end users. GitHub CoPilot etc. is very popular for programmers. I am just assuming the models will continue to improve and be deployed.
The only reason to be un-optimistic like that person is if you assume that the model capability will remain essentially static over several years. But even with current models (which new ones are released every few months at this point) there is huge potential for replacing quite a lot of real software engineering work especially when you start putting them in loops and specializing/priming them for particular types of programming.
What is your justification for these estimates? I've been trying to pay attention to what various experts think (I'm not one) and it seems like far from a foregone conclusion that this will be the case, and it might not even be the case that scaling up produces the same outsized benefits we've seen so far.
François Chollet for example seems like someone who is pretty in the know about current SOTA and is not nearly as optimistic best I can tell.
https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1620617016024645634?cxt=...
> But at the same time they absolutely have to learn how to use the new AI tools. It will be critical to stay competitively productive as an adult or just to be able to fit in. There will be important new tools every few months or years.
Definitely agree here.
> Where this is really headed in my opinion is by the 2040s high bandwidth brain computer interfaces that tightly integrate cognition with advanced AI systems (2-10 X smarter than humans) start to become commonplace.
My gut feeling is this is pretty insane and unlikely to be the case but I suppose insane things have happened before.