> A lot of people seem to take the rapid improvement of LLMs from GPT-2 through GPT-4 and their brethren, and extrapolate that trendline to infinity.
> But that's not logically sound.
Yup, five years ago I asked "Do we definitely already know it's going to be possible to deploy self-driving cars in an economically meaningful way?" and got the answer "yes", on a story titled "GM says it will put fleets of self-driving cars in cities in 2019"!
> But that's not logically sound.
Yup, five years ago I asked "Do we definitely already know it's going to be possible to deploy self-driving cars in an economically meaningful way?" and got the answer "yes", on a story titled "GM says it will put fleets of self-driving cars in cities in 2019"!
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15824953
I just have no idea how people are making the extrapolations they are making about the power of future large language models.