> However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the US is shifting away from the One China policy. That shift is deeply alarming the Chinese government. There doesn't seem to be anyone in American politics who is capable of pressing the breaks, slowing down the drive towards confrontation, and reengaging in real diplomacy with China.
Funny, from this side it looks like the opposite: the US is shifting towards greater recognition of Taiwan because China amped up its rhetoric about reunification.
The timeline of how tensions have risen is very clear. The Trump administration began taking steps to undermine the One China policy, such as Trump holding an official call with the Taiwanese president, and calling for Taiwan to be included in international organizations that normally only accept sovereign states. Pelosi's trip was another major milestone, because it breaks the US' promise not to maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Biden's repeated statements that the US definitely will defend Taiwan are another milestone, because they jettison a decades-long American policy of strategic ambiguity. Things appear to be accelerating, with the Taiwanese president's visit to the US and meeting with Kevin McCarthy, and with increasing talk in the US about potentially backing formal Taiwanese independence.
China's reaction to this has been to reiterate its long-standing position, that it favors peaceful reunification but does not rule out military force as a last resort, and to increase military drills near Taiwan. China has been reactive here. For example, it held large military drills after Pelosi visited.
A lot of these developments are driven by American domestic politics, with the two parties competing to brandish their anti-China credentials. That drives then towards increasingly provocative actions, with little thought about the larger consequences of heading down this path.
The other element driving the shift in American policy is the fact that the naval balance of power in China's immediate periphery is shifting. The US Navy is still much stronger overall, but it may no longer be able to defeat China 100 km off of China's coast. In a decade, the balance will be even less advantageous for the US. This is a major motive for jettisoning strategic ambiguity, to force a change in Taiwan's status before the balance of power tilts further.
> The timeline of how tensions have risen is very clear. The Trump administration began...
Disagree, tensions were already rising well before that. In particular Xi Jinping made a big call for reunification in 2014, which likely lead to a more vigorously pro-independence party being elected in Taiwan in 2016. Closer cooperation with the US followed from that.
Funny, from this side it looks like the opposite: the US is shifting towards greater recognition of Taiwan because China amped up its rhetoric about reunification.