According to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14270/spacex-starship-orbit-in-... | Hacker News

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		gglon on April 20, 2023 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after laun... According to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14270/spacex-starship-or... its chances to reach orbit in 2023 have just risen from 85% to 90%. Therefore generally I would call the launch a relative success.

danpalmer on April 20, 2023 [–]

It looks like it has dropped 4% over the last week, so while the monthly trend is upwards, I'm not sure this launch, or the scrub a few days ago, have improved things.

cubefox on April 20, 2023 | [–]

Worth also noting that Elon "chronically overoptimistic" Musk said 80% himself, suggesting that Metaculus is too optimistic here.

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