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> Success was defined as the rocket leaving the launchpad.

That's not what they said in their mission presentation though. It was supposed to launch, separate, return the booster back, then the rocket was supposed to orbit once around the Earth and then fall into the ocean.

I understand people have their feelings invested into this (for whatever reason), but objectively speaking that was not what "success was defined as".



It literally is what they said in their presentation. Repeatedly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1wcilQ58hI

@ 9:38 "We will consider any data inform and improve future builds of starship as a success. From a milestone our main goal is to clear the pad. Every milestone beyond that is a bonus."

@ 15:57 "We're focusing on the fundamental systems and operations, so that's the liftoff portion, but we are going to try and get some data on how the fins work..."

@ 35:26 "I want to remind everyone that success today is anything <interrupted by cheering> for today success is anything that helps improve the future builds of starship. If we lift off and clear the pad we're calling that a win."


With this definition of success, they couldn't have possibly failed. That's called PR.


Well they need a plan in case the thing takes off. If you look at the objective:

"SpaceX intends to collect as much data as possible during flight to quantify entry dynamics and better understand what the vehicle experiences in a flight regime that is extremely difficult to accurately predict or replicate computationally. This data will anchor any changes in vehicle design or CONOPs after the first flight and build better models for us to use in our internal simulations."

From https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=273481

It doesn't say the objective is "fly across earth".


They defined success up front as being able to gather information. They did that.


You can gather information by just leaving the rocket on the pad. Saying, “we can’t fail no matter what,” ahead of your failure doesn’t mean anyone else has to accept you didn’t fail.


Isn't this such a low bar that almost anything could clear it (e.g. Goodhart's law)?

To me, more interesting than how the company itself defines success would be how domain experts outside the company perceive it.


The same domain experts who have been failing to build big rockets for the last 50 years?


There was no plan to return the booster back.




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