There is a world in between, we cannot be sure of anything because of Fraud, and here is some rough guess work.

If you want to claim the latter as evidence then fair enough, I would call it speculation.

In either case there is no need to resort to petty insults.

It was not a petty insult. The options you gave are "fraud" or "unfounded speculation." Literally lacks any kind of nuance. What sort of nuance would you say you contributed?