Not to put too fine a point on this, but by talking about the size of the market, you do realize you're committing the exact same mistake as Dvorak, but in reverse:
>Apple Inc.'s past successes have been in markets that were emerging or moribund. Its biggest hit has been the iPod.
Recency bias aside, Apple clearly has experience to take on markets like this.
>doesn't solve any existing obvious pain points.
I mean, if you pay attention to any of the people that have tried hands-ons, they all say the UI interaction is leaps and bounds better than anyone else. Hand tracking, clarity, and pass-through too - this isn't a Meta Quest competitor, it's an improved Varjo XR3 for half the price. This price isn't really a blunder as much as a signal as to who this is for.
But really, the point is that this isn't the device Apple wanted to make. They wanted to wait another 5-10 years to get the miniaturization and price down so it can just be a pair of glasses. But they don't have that luxury; Zuck is trying to own the market, and Apple needs developers now rather than later. They know this device won't have high volume (and they've told shareholders that for months) but they're investing for 5-10 years from now when the tech is at the point where it does.
>If I buy one, what device can I throw away?
I mean from the way Apple is currently marketing it, the answer is "Your tablet, probably laptop, and even TV, (and eventually, your phone)"
> They wanted to wait another 5-10 years to get the miniaturization and price down so it can just be a pair of glasses. But they don't have that luxury; Zuck is trying to own the market, and Apple needs developers now rather than later. They know this device won't have high volume (and they've told shareholders that for months) but they're investing for 5-10 years from now when the tech is at the point where it does.
This is the best defense of the device that I've seen. I can absolutely see the appeal of AR in a pair of glasses, that's a form factor and convenience that makes sense.
But how will Apple retain excitement for this device and retain developers doing stuff for it, if the install base is tiny compared to the competition? Over ten years? Once this thing ends up on people's shelves, why should any company develop for it? "Trust me bro, Apple Vision Air 5 is finally going to kick off!"
The iPhone introduced the app store, which allowed for a literal gold rush, it suddenly became a whole lot easier for developers to earn money for their software, of course developers flocked to it, even though the install base was small. There's no such mechanism in place this time, all the other VR headsets have app stores. So what's the draw? All the Apple Vision owners are rich, so you can price your apps higher?
I understand the long term goals of Apple, they have to make this bet in case VR becomes the next revolution, but VR has been a solution looking for a problem for thirty years now at least, and this product is not going to become successful, and yet this thread, and every other one like it, is full of people predicting the VR revolution.
>Apple Inc.'s past successes have been in markets that were emerging or moribund. Its biggest hit has been the iPod.
Recency bias aside, Apple clearly has experience to take on markets like this.
>doesn't solve any existing obvious pain points.
I mean, if you pay attention to any of the people that have tried hands-ons, they all say the UI interaction is leaps and bounds better than anyone else. Hand tracking, clarity, and pass-through too - this isn't a Meta Quest competitor, it's an improved Varjo XR3 for half the price. This price isn't really a blunder as much as a signal as to who this is for.
But really, the point is that this isn't the device Apple wanted to make. They wanted to wait another 5-10 years to get the miniaturization and price down so it can just be a pair of glasses. But they don't have that luxury; Zuck is trying to own the market, and Apple needs developers now rather than later. They know this device won't have high volume (and they've told shareholders that for months) but they're investing for 5-10 years from now when the tech is at the point where it does.
>If I buy one, what device can I throw away?
I mean from the way Apple is currently marketing it, the answer is "Your tablet, probably laptop, and even TV, (and eventually, your phone)"