> (a) break things down into subprojects, estimate them, add it up
> (b) gut feeling estimate based on how nervous i feel about unexpected risks
> So far (b) is vastly more accurate for any project more than a few weeks
Here lies one of the main problems with “estimates”. They don’t capture a confidence interval. You can only give one number (and it’s usually story points, not real time). “That’s a five point story”. How confident are you in that assessment? How many unknowns are buried in there? So, a five point estimate that’s arrived at after careful consideration has the same weight as one given off the cuff with no investigation at all. Of course estimates go wildly wrong.
> (a) break things down into subprojects, estimate them, add it up
> (b) gut feeling estimate based on how nervous i feel about unexpected risks
> So far (b) is vastly more accurate for any project more than a few weeks
Here lies one of the main problems with “estimates”. They don’t capture a confidence interval. You can only give one number (and it’s usually story points, not real time). “That’s a five point story”. How confident are you in that assessment? How many unknowns are buried in there? So, a five point estimate that’s arrived at after careful consideration has the same weight as one given off the cuff with no investigation at all. Of course estimates go wildly wrong.