Given the amounts of money and attention being bought to bear? It'll be 12-24 months or less.
Tonight I'm going to play around with LLMs. I'm probably going to go to bed early because my AMD graphics card running ROCm (on an unsupported system and a probably unsupported graphics card) will eventually cause a kernel panic.
In some sense that is unforgivable. In other senses, they are only 1-2 bugs away from being perfectly good enough and competitive with Nvidia for me. That isn't much of a moat. It usually takes an hour or so for the drivers to collapse and for those hours everything works great.
You, for many definitions of "you", never work on a supercomputer. Despite the fact that today's smartphones are faster than a Cray-1 of the yesteryear. Similarly, you don't need to have ATI/AMD to catch the absolute performance crown from Nvidia, like AMD did several times with Intel, for you to use AMD solutions.
We'll see how smart the market and the monopolist are this time around, yes, in the next 12-24 months... and maybe longer.
Good point. I forgot about the broken record that was gaming drivers.
I was specifically referring to AMD's investments in a unified computing stack (their equivalent of CUDA) which were supposed to bring them to computational parity in the AI/ML.
Tonight I'm going to play around with LLMs. I'm probably going to go to bed early because my AMD graphics card running ROCm (on an unsupported system and a probably unsupported graphics card) will eventually cause a kernel panic.
In some sense that is unforgivable. In other senses, they are only 1-2 bugs away from being perfectly good enough and competitive with Nvidia for me. That isn't much of a moat. It usually takes an hour or so for the drivers to collapse and for those hours everything works great.