That's one world - there is another where the time gap grows a lot more as the compute and training requirements continue to rise.
Microsoft will probably be willing to spend multiple billions in compute to help train GPT5, so it depends how much investment open source projects can get to compete. Seems like it's down to Meta, but it depends if they can continue to justify releasing future models as Open Source considering the investment required, or what licensing looks like.
That's one world - there is another where the time gap grows a lot more as the compute and training requirements continue to rise.
Microsoft will probably be willing to spend multiple billions in compute to help train GPT5, so it depends how much investment open source projects can get to compete. Seems like it's down to Meta, but it depends if they can continue to justify releasing future models as Open Source considering the investment required, or what licensing looks like.