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Why won't they afford to own a home? Is the population skyrocketing suddenly anywhere in the Western nations apart from Israel? They already own one. They could pass houses down to their children.

And yes, zoning and NIMBYsm exists only as long as (slightly) more than 50% of people are satisfied with their housing situation (and thus want prices to grow to fund their retirement), as slightly less than 50% are not (and thus want prices to fall to be able to afford to buy). This equilibrium will of course, self-preserve because zoning rules are not national but change based on locality, so there won't be a single nationwide crash anywhere.



> Why won't they afford to own a home? Is the population skyrocketing suddenly anywhere in the Western nations apart from Israel? They already own one.

Lifespans are increasing, and people expect/insist on living alone more. And while population may not be "skyrocketing", it's increasing.

> This equilibrium will of course, self-preserve because zoning rules are not national but change based on locality, so there won't be a single nationwide crash anywhere.

A big enough change in a local area will become a national crash easily enough - we've seen that before (particularly in the UK where London alone is something like 20% of the housing market by value). Couple that with the fact that the same demographic changes are happening in most places - housing prices have been rising since the '50s and it's going to boil over at a similar time everywhere. And since policies and politics move slowly, we can't count on a smooth transition - more likely there will be an overhang and increasing pressure to do something (indeed there already have been - but the current generation of short-termist politicians naturally responded with misguided policies like "affordable housing" requirements that have only reduced housing affordability) until the problem can't be ignored, and then a crash and perhaps even an overcorrection.




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