Going back to Linebarger (who seems smart enough to have learned from his defeat in the 国共内战 [Chinese Civil War]), we have:
> Sometimes individuals will be unpersuadable. ... But such is man, that most individuals will stop fighting at some point short of extinction; that point is reached when one of two things happens:
> Either, the defeated people may lose their sense of organization, fail to decide on leaders and methods, and give up because they can no longer fight as a group. This happened to the American Southerners in April, 1865. The President and Cabinet of the Confederate States of America got on the train at Richmond; the men who got off farther down the line were "refugees." Something happened to them and to the people about them, so that Mr. Davis no longer thought of himself as President Davis, and other people no longer accepted his commands. This almost happened in Germany in 1945 except for Admiral Doenitz.
> Or, the defeated people can retain their sense of organization, and can use their political organization for the purpose of getting in touch with the enemy, arranging the end of the war, and preparing, through organized means, to comply with the wishes of the conquerors. That happened when Britain acknowledged American independence; when the Boers recognized British sovereignty; when Finland signed what Russia had dictated; and when Japan gave up.
[and, of particular interest with regard to US post-1865 Reconstruction and the 2001-2021 Afghanistan War: (sorry, I should call that last one by however the Taliban call it, but my persian-script-fu is nonexistent)]
> Sometimes these things are mixed. The people might wish to make peace, but may find that their government is not recognized by the enemy. Or the victors may think that they have smashed the enemy government, when the new organization is simply the old one under a slightly different name, but with the old leaders and the old ideas still prevailing.
> Sometimes individuals will be unpersuadable. ... But such is man, that most individuals will stop fighting at some point short of extinction; that point is reached when one of two things happens:
> Either, the defeated people may lose their sense of organization, fail to decide on leaders and methods, and give up because they can no longer fight as a group. This happened to the American Southerners in April, 1865. The President and Cabinet of the Confederate States of America got on the train at Richmond; the men who got off farther down the line were "refugees." Something happened to them and to the people about them, so that Mr. Davis no longer thought of himself as President Davis, and other people no longer accepted his commands. This almost happened in Germany in 1945 except for Admiral Doenitz.
> Or, the defeated people can retain their sense of organization, and can use their political organization for the purpose of getting in touch with the enemy, arranging the end of the war, and preparing, through organized means, to comply with the wishes of the conquerors. That happened when Britain acknowledged American independence; when the Boers recognized British sovereignty; when Finland signed what Russia had dictated; and when Japan gave up.
[and, of particular interest with regard to US post-1865 Reconstruction and the 2001-2021 Afghanistan War: (sorry, I should call that last one by however the Taliban call it, but my persian-script-fu is nonexistent)]
> Sometimes these things are mixed. The people might wish to make peace, but may find that their government is not recognized by the enemy. Or the victors may think that they have smashed the enemy government, when the new organization is simply the old one under a slightly different name, but with the old leaders and the old ideas still prevailing.
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/48612/48612-h/48612-h.htm#Pa...